BJP's bungled economic actions

Amid all the cry of wrong policies of the current NDA government, during my interaction with industry participants across the spectrum of automotive, plastics, paints etc, following came out :

BJP's policies were well intentioned, but the implementation has been botched. Let's look at each of main actions :
A. GST - while the aim was to get everyone on. Board and with that they cleared off on multiple rates and complex structures, the rules made have had serious repercussions by faulty drafting of initial laws. This has happened largely as they wanted to ensure law has to be iron tight and should not leave room for businesses for any wrongdoing. In this quest, they forgot to differentiate between bona fide  and mala fide acts. This created such wrong rules that its opened a pandora box of legal cases going forward. While they have reacted now, it's late and has already caused huge loss.

B. I was surprised to understand from some companies which import paints from other countries,  that they get full input credit for all goods that they import and sell and hence they dont need to setup a manufacturing plant at all !

C. Safety regulations, environmental regulations are all being done together and too fast. This has pushed up acquisition cost. But bigger issue is the hard stop mandated by the SC which has created the current gloom and doom in the industry.  If the supreme court can be petitioned to review this rule, and allow for registration of stock available at dealerships on 31 march 2020, then the current situation will suddenly turn towards a virtuous cycle like earlier times of BS changes as customers would like to take benefit of price difference. But currently they are only waiting for the bloothbath which they feel is expected in Q4.

D. Now look at the decision on single use plastics. Thousands of plastic units manufacturing such goods across the country are suddenly in a spot as they dont know what to do. Few years back the government allowed plastic bags (Leno bags/woven sacks) for all FVI requirements removing jute. Food packaging etc also got huge investments in plastics. Now suddenly the government wants to get rid of same. What are these manufacturers going to do ? They stop all investments and start saving for the bad times to come !
Imagine 100,000 units stopping all investments !!

E. Quest for transparency and tax collections has increased harassment hugely on businessmen. Most businesses I know have decided not to open any more companies given the compliance required ( they have increased 100 times from before ) and also they have decided try and reduce the work they were planning earlier. I hardly hear people talk about growing beyond the current planned and auctioned investments. The jewellery sector has been hardest hit in this regard.

F. Closure of large companies like Jet airways, persecution of people like Vijay mallya inspite of his repeated public offer of full settlements, have caused a huge lack of confidence and distrust between industry and government.

To my mind government can still correct the situation at this time to save a large number of remaining jobs, if it genuinely acknowledges the real issues in the economy.

Some suggested actions are :

1. GST refund RTGS in next 7 days
2. FEAR from businesses needs to be removed
3. Compliance relief so that people can focus on increasing business
4. Cash movement relief - bank withdrawals, no TDS.
5. TCS bracket to be increased to 20 lacs and above.
6. Consumption/modernization capex breaks to be given to corporates
7. Stopping all coercive measures on businesses for gst, IT, old cases.
8. Booster consumption package with incentives for companies
9. Bank loans rejig, RBI relaxation on questioning of banks for end use.

While some actions seem excessive, but given current state of economy, drastic measures are needed to kickstart the economy once.

When things stabilise, government can think of changing things one at a time.

Marketing in politics today

Every elections see new ideas emerging in the way candidates connect with the masses.

This time too is no different.

If we compare the 2014 campaign to the 2019 campaign there are subtle differences between the BJP campaigns.

2014 was more about introducing modi to the masses. Use of technology, leveraging old hands within BJP to supplement his credentials, and Mr Modi's unrelenting hard work and request for support to general populace felt from the heart and people reeling from inaction and ineptitude gave Mr Modi a resounding chance to perform.

This time we see the campaign completely centered around their biggest mascot himself. It's a big risk for Mr Modi, because if he fails it's all on him. He has employed traditional with the digital. Town hall formats, direct issue based conversations and relentless last mile campaign are the tools this time.

Congress on the other hand has changed the approach. They realised that Mr Rahul Gandhi is no match for Mr Modi in traditional speeches. So we  see him using more direct engagement platforms in colleges etc. to connect with youth. Ms priyanka Gandhi who is a more natural speaker and gets instant connect with grassroots people wherever she goes is employing her charms to connect with voters around her.

One thing is clear, whether Congress wins this time or not, she is someone who will bounce back when her time comes. Her easygoing speaking, ability to deliver hard punches in a soft voice are definitely reassuring to the voters she meets. In today's campaign in Assam the way she connected with crowd and put full support on the local candidate is quite different from how Mr Modi is dealing with his campaign. To my mind this will pay off for Congress in time to come and it will be interesting to see how things pan out.

The way things are going time isn't far when all major candidates will have to come for open debates in the format used in America and some other western countries.

It'll definitely be an interesting watch to see Mr Modi and Mr Gandhi take on each other in such a format, not to mention the mahgathbandhan leaders like Ms Banerjee, mr akhilesh yadav and others.

As marketing gets slicker in poll campaigns voters need to become smarter to shift through the makeup and realise the real picture to make an informed choice.

Indian politics : The Apathy of leaders in the future.

The election season is here, and how!

No one could have predicted the Pulwama Attack, and definitely not the airstrike against Pakistan on their own soil! The surge in nationalistic sentiments post the event have also changed the narrative of the pre election discourse.

Given the BJP offensive on nationalism, the congress represented by Mrs Priyanka Gandhi & Mr Rahul Gandhi have realised that it's a do or die situation for the Congress this time. They have realised that they need to come back to power, at any cost, whether their own or of the country.

The congress president has been painstakingly putting out one idea a night since the past few days, promising seemingly impossible dreams, doles & dough.  Direct transfer of Rs 72000 per year to 5 crore families means a direct cost to the country of Rs 3.6 lac crore! To manage the same, congress leaders have suggested that the money will be recovered through higher taxes on the middle class.

What they have failed to mention is the crushing impact it will have over the next 3 years on the Indian economy. With 5 crore families getting 72000 surplus income, there will be an upsurge in rural demand, and prices of fruits, vegetables etc will see a big rise. To compound the problem, the additional burden on the middle class will necessitate raising the wages, and make India more costly in global competitiveness. The twin impact of both will be high inflation, low expansion, and possibly job cuts in face of a slowing economy/low growth in real income.

Since the past 3 months I have been observing Rahul Gandhi, and found him to a far more mature face than before. Not getting into unnecessary spats, and focusing attention on creating his own narrative. There was a brief period when I actually started thinking maybe, just maybe, he may have some sense in what he says.

But the recent comments and promises by him on social media, and finally through release of the Congress Manifesto, I was flabbergasted by the extent of promises they have made to the Indian populace.

Congress has identified the opposition voice in every sphere and tried to capitalise on the same by offering them whatever they have wanted. To name a few :
1. Low jobs : They will fill all government vacancies
2. Retired army personnel : We will offer jobs in CRPF
3. Low farmer income : We will offer direct cash to you
4. Angel Tax: We will abolish the same
5. AFSPA : We will water it down/abolish same
6. J&K : We will reduce army and have unconditional talks

What the above tells me that in the quest for power, he has shown reckless abandon towards the future of the country, and promised whatever it takes, to be able to get attention and turn that attention into votes.

To me, this in itself, disqualifies him to be a PM candidate. A PM candidate has to continuously think of whats best for the country & its citizens regardless of what is considered to be good or bad.

Mr Modi, on his part has been continuing on his offensive on nationalism, past work, and future promise of his sheer hard work, regardless of what Congress says.

Among all this noise between the Congress, BJP & the Mahagathbandhan, what worries me more is far deeper.

If we take a step back and look at the political landscape, I see the following :

1. Congress - A Dynasty trying to save their hold on the Indian Political landscape, whatever the cost.

2. BJP - A party trying to change the narrative by capitalising on the opportunity to polarise votes on lines of nationalism or religion coupled with development targets.

3. Regional parties trying to remove the idea of BJP/Modi who has projected himself to be the only National Leader capable of delivering the goods. These regional parties are polarising voters through their own agenda of polarising people on basis of caste, creed, regional identity & religion.

4. Fringe leaders like Kanhaiya, Hardik, Jignesh, Ghelani who are fanning communal/caste identities in their areas of influence trying to win voters through all sorts of Political Maths.

When we see the above, and really think about it, I fear that once we have lost out on a mass leader like Modi in maybe the next 10-15 years, what kind of people really are there to take us forward?

On this day, we have rabble rousing leaders like Owaisi, Ghelani, Mehbooba, Kanhaiya etc each of whom have an agenda, which is not necessarily nationalistic. At least their public meetings dont tell us that.

Congress, on its part, seems to be unable to find a real, long term viable solution, as the current manifesto that they have released seems like one where they are ready to let go of everything. Economic stability, J&K, Chinese disputed territories, buckling under minority pressures are all on the table as options for the Grand Old Party.

BJP, on its part has leaders, but apart from Modi, at this time, they don't have anyone with the same national appeal, performance graph or grasp on the political mindscape to take over. Younger leaders like Smriti Irani, Youth leader Anurag etc are all ok, but seemingly not PM material.

Maybe we will see entry of better viable candidates who can come and change the narrative when the opportunity presents itself, because if not, I personally, am extremely worried about the future of India in the 2030's and beyond.

Demonetisation begins an era of adjusting economy

India's economic landscape as we used to know it before November 8, is gone forever.

The business community has to adjust to a new reality. How do you work without 'adjustments'!

To think of it, adjusting is part of Indian ethos, with Wives adjusting with Husbands, Sons adjusting with parents, Citizens adjusting with Governments, even Birds & Animals adjusting with Humans!

So, to think of a life without scope for adjustments, is something that we Indians havent done in generations together.

The culture of not giving enough to the government perhaps started with the Indians not wanting to give enough to the government which was run by the British. You tried to save what you could from the Elite Angrez.  Post independence, while a large section of the society became patriotic, and contributed what they could to the country, the government had to help kickstart and stabilise the economy by freebies, doles & licences.

The license raj fostered a culture of 'payments' & 'cuts' and a privileged few got immense benefits while the poor remained poor. Government investments did not take place as was promised, and the middle class & poor felt dis-enfranchised.

Thus came the period, where Indians felt it was 'right' to not share their profits completely, as anyway the government didn't do enough for them. Business families have diligently taught children how to dress books in order to retain what they considered what was their 'fair' share. Somewhere down the line this 'fair share' turned into a 'lion's share' and thats where the country started hurting. The abolition of licenses gave birth to bigger malaise in forms of everyday corruption. The entry of foreigners into the country and the prospects of large deals prompted large scale corruption in government purchases, public investments.

Such capitalism brought about more malaise in the Political establishment, which in turn made the public feel, it was 'ok' to cheat. This brought an era where keeping your cut became fashionable. Hell, even priests kept their cut from the Gods!

Then came the first post independence Prime Minister of our country, Shri Narendra Modi. On 8 November 2016, He said ' why should everyone steal from everyone?'. What if the government gets all this money? That will potentially change the political landscape for him going forward.

He precisely attempted to remove all cash from everyone's hands and asked everyone to put it in banks, and government coffers. So he banned all Rs 500 & Rs 1000 notes, comprising of 86% of cash in circulation.

Suddenly, the Economy and its servants were in panic. They didn't know what to do. well, they (we) had never done something like this. It was like coming clean as never before! Thus started the biggest cleanup in Indian history. Notes were searched for in every nook & corner(literally) of the country's households & offices. everyone had to come clean on how much money they had. Fathers to sons, sons to fathers, sisters to brothers, even wives to husbands!

This brought a strange new reality to us. We have never known how to be absolutely true like this. It was like an economic apocalypse for a large large section of the economy. Businessmen who used to show off their ill gotten wealth suddenly felt their lives crashing down around them. In moments, what used to be the best way to make money, suddenly seemed gone.

Even then, the goodness that is India, every person said, affected or not, It is good for the country. In long term, the country will benefit.

However, no one had bargained for the turmoil that the country will face in the coming days. People were suddenly without any cash! Turns out event the poor also had mostly Rs 500 & Rs 1000 notes. they began queueing up at banks, post offices, markets where-ever the notes were accepted. But alas, there simply wasn't enough.

The government realised that they don't have that many notes to distribute that fast. They had thought that the people would have some more money, and they would be able to wait. But the people felt that even if I dont need the money, let me take some notes and save, just in case!

This gave the opposing politicians (who had most to lose) an opportunity. They started fanning the fire, and it spread. With each passing day, situation became better, but still the hunger for cash grew stronger. The reality of cash in the Indian society came to fore.

The above story, when reflected for its true impact has the following facets to it, Social, Political & Economic.

The Society has seen one of the greatest redistribution of wealths in the history of our country. Never before have the rich begged the meek(poor) for helping them 'adjust' their money. Business owners had to come clean in front of their people on the extent of their riches. A large section of the poor felt that for the first time, they have the upper hand. Even the Middle class and the salaried class felt very happy that the rich are troubled. This is their time, they have felt.

Social divide has become sharper, however, the poor's irritation with government has gone in a different direction, with them feeling the government didn't do 'anything' to 'too much'!

The Economic Impact is something that the government hadn't bargained for. India has been the fastest growing economy off late. The wheels of trade which had gained speed and traction for the past three months of August, September & October, had to apply a huge 'shuttle break', bringing the massively growing economy to a wheezing, grinding halt. Businesses which had maximum cash component in them suddenly didn't know how to operate.

Every individual started focussing on how to 'manage' what they had first. Business could come later. The survival instincts of our populace was clearly demonstrated in this 'extinction level event', so to speak.

The first hit have been industries like Food(fruits & vegetables, and consequently processed foods), Cloth(all forms and entire value chain), Farmer chain like Milk, PVC cloth, Jewellery, real estate, large trade centers like Delhi, Kolkata, Ichhal Karanji, Surat, Mumbai etc. This was bourne out from interviews with seniormost bankers in the country.

Then came the second wave where the entire economy felt the impact with massive breakdown in trade in industries like Automobile, Retail, Luxury Goods and each and every section of the trade.
Trade bodies like FICCI, CII, FADA & SIAM have said that the trade is down by 30-40% and they are planning largescale production cuts. Banks have been warned of very high NPA's given the cash crunch with people & businesses.

Highly capital intensive industries have to contend with the new reality of people suddenly not spending. This is specially painful as H2 of any financial year, is when people have prepared for large growth, and hence all investments, plans have been made as aggressively. This slowdown will have further impact of massive retrenchments across the board.

Thus, the salaried class, which has been largely happy till now, has reason to worry. Given the sudden change in climate, businesses will run to cut costs, sharply. The first to bear the brunt has to be to costs on manpower.

This, will have large impact on the consumption industries. This, is the real worry for the government. Unless they bring  a kicker to the economy, it will be very difficult to revive the suddnly spluttering, flailing & Fluttering behemoth that it has become in the past 2 weeks.

So, the Economic impact has been far greater than the social benefit that the country has witnessed. The next 8-12 months are gone as far as business & growth is concerned.

As we all know, Politics trumps Society & Economy. This is what has prompted the above scene of misery & anguish.

Like promised, Mr Modi has taken steps in order to secure his future in the Indian Polity for the next decade or so. For this, he knows he needs to win states like UP & Punjab. Hence the sudden need to change his voter base. In one swift movement, he has changed his supporters from traders, businessmen, jewellers, Gujaratis & like to the poor, masses, downtrodden, dis-enfranchised et al.

He has also removed the entire cash hoard with his competitors like the Congress, BSP, TMC, SP. Politicans like Mamata Banerjee took the first stand against the move, sensing a reality to gain support from the muslim voter group. She crafted an alliance with Arvind kejriwal and others. So grand has been the impact on the competition that even his staunchest of supporters like TDP have come out against the policy.

One curious fallout of this action has been the hardship to the muslims, who as a community, have the lowest penetration in the banking channel, as their law prohibits them from taking loans or earning interest. This community had always kept money at home, rather than in banks.

Political Pundits surmise without the cash that has helped governments stay in power, it will be extremely difficult for BSP, SP and Congress to wage a good war with Modi's BJP. Its almost certain now for the BJP to come to power in UP, by those estimates.

This reason, above all, has been behind the action in a marriage month of November, just before onset of the winter festivities. So what, if large section of the poor has faced harships, business had to undergo a huge difficulty. The expected loss of business to a large section of trade is significant, and yet to be quantified.

Hence, while the BJP may have felt that they have won the war, it is likely that they would lose the battle, with a large section of the society as collateral damage towards its goal of political legacy.

If only, it could have been implemented well!

Paris blasts : an attack on the idea of love

Having lived in Paris for a brief period (about 3 months), I had fallen in love with the city.

The sheer history, architecture, weather, way of life, and the highly fashion conscious people (read beautiful) lend an aura around the place found in only a few other cities around the world.

The bombings on the other day made me sad about the sheer brazen-ness with which the bombs were blown in public places.

The attack was to prove a point. If they can...they will!

But the way I perceive ISIS is that they have achieved exactly what they wanted. Blood, mayhem, cries for war, followed by global attention (see how the dark eiffel was a symbol of sadness) and finally a resolution to fight war with war.

Honestly, in my view, the world has played right into their hand on how they wanted the response. This incident will see a bump in ISIS stock. Enrollments will increase, and they have become heroes in eyes of their supporters/sympathisers.

All the talk of war and removing ISIS is quite a lot of bull as ISIS is an organisation, an idea with the face of terror, quite similar to the likes of the MI6, CIA or any other world organisation! It was much easier to kill the idea of Osama than the idea of ISIS!

In my opinion, the response should have been just how we respond to a child throwing a tantrum. Ignore.

Paris is much more than a city.  It is the idea of love. And by hitting Paris ISIS hit the idea of love. Well,love is all pervasive (at the cost of sounding corny), and it should have picked up just where it left off.

Eiffel tower should have been lit brighter than ever before, cafes should have distributed free food and wine! Newspapers should have covered more about the history, greatness of the city and desisted from writing anything about the ISIS.

All the targeting and acts of war should have been behind the scenes with no media mention.

All is not lost yet, and we can still do a lot to redeem the city of love!

Why BJP needs Bihar?

Bihar has traditionally been a backward state, with highly localised and caste based politics ruling the roost. It is because of nature of its politics, and most major national parties choose to partner with the local strong party rather than going the whole hog in the state.

However, the past few month's experience of the BJP with extremely strong floor management from Congress in both the houses of the parliament, has made Narendra Modi realise that he needs good numbers in the Rajya Sabha, if he has any hopes of passing legislation in his tenure, and actually start doing something good with it.

He needs it, and desperately so, given the promises he made during last Lok Sabha election campaigning.

This is the reason we find BJP trained its guns to Bihar, with more than 47 rallies being addressed by Prime Minister Modi in spite of his tight travelling schedule and managing the African nation's meet in Delhi.

The bookies have bet towards a win from the BJP and they making a credible government in Bihar. While Nitish and Lalu are hoping they will be able to divide votes, and be able to come on top.

Stock market pundits are betting a sensex swing of 4-6% based on BJP's win or loss!

Who will take Bihar, is anybody's guess as yet. But definitely, nerves are showing.

Sri Lanka : on the Up!

Sri Lanka has always been a challenge for India. Historically, Politically & Ideologically!

It is said that in earlier times Sri Lanka,  Maldives etc were part of the Indian land mass. It was only a few thousand years ago that it broke away and became different land masses with their own languages.

This is seen in the similarities in culture, beliefs and the lifestyles. It is because of the troubled past, political militancy and extreme poverty that it has always ben challenging for Indian government to support the lankans; especially so, after the assassination of prime minister Rajiv Gandhi.

In my recent visit to Sri Lanka, I was surprised to find the super smooth highways, great tourist transport, good transport infrastructure, port development and Casinos running in the city. Also big real estate developments are taking place in Colombo at a hectic pace.  !

Funny thing is : 80 percent investment is Chinese.

The local guide couldn't stress more on the subject about how chinese investment has changed lives of scores of Lankans in past 3 years. They could never imagine such tourist traffic, neither the amount of work happening around them. In next 5 years, it wont be surprising to see Colombo rivalling Macau.

It is clear India lost a huge advantage in spite of the close proximity to Sri Lanka in the last decade.

However all is not lost yet, and the current government is working overtime to ensure this. The invitation of their new president to Narendra Modi's swearing in was a master stroke and change a lot of perceptions about India in lanka.

Also, it seems several projects since then have been taken up by Indian companies. Atleast China's growth has been curtailed in the country and going forward we can expect an equivalent position to China in our relationship with Sri Lanka.

But the Indian government has to move fast, very fast; if we want to steal the momentum from the Chinese as they are leaving no stone unturned to ensure India is unable to break into the space.

Sri Lanka, being the crown jewel in their "String of Pearls" strategy vis a vis India, Needs to be quickly turned around to the Indian side in order to break Chinese stranglehold over their infrastructure at the earliest.

Bengal : Completely Didi's

21st July is celebrated as Martyr's day by the current Rulers of Bengal. Ostensibly to commemorate the deaths of individuals against the forcible land grab by the earlier government.

This event has turned out today to be more a show of strength and a gauge of public mood than anything else.

While every year this event is considered  to be a landmark rally, this year was most special for Didi. This was the first year that the event was organised in the absence of Mukul Roy. This was also the first big event after the Saradha Scam took a toll on TMC in the recent past. This was also the event to gauge public mood before next years elections.

Didi and her supporters have reason to be pleased. This years rally passed the test on all counts by flying colours!

The attendance at the rally was huge by any standards. The mood was jubilant, People Happy.

This rally has also cemented another fact : Didi is here to stay.

Among all the dark clouds of gloom and doom predicted by some sections of  news media; This fact also has a silver lining. Any investor can be absolutely sure that TMC will be in power for next 10 years. Hence they will get all the support from the government in order to make their project successful.

But the before any such big ticket item happens, Didi has to handle the following issues :

1. Solve the Singur Tangle at any cost.

2. Go for the best Ease of business score in the country.

3. Ensure the Center( Read Modi) provides rightly timed support to Bengal. ( for this all kinds of support can be provided in the Rajya Sabha)

4. Utilise such support and own resources in developing infrastructure, tourism and healthcare.

5. Utilise the golden opportunity of the ports investment, 4 Nation Road treaty, Eastern freight corridor, Ganga Cleanup projects.

These will help in bringing much needed outside investor to Bengal and take it to the heights which is rightfully Bengal's.

Why Indians cant Invent?

We Indians are pretty smug when it comes to our contribution of Zero to the world.

Whenever anyone asks the question "what's India's contribution to the world ? " and we start reaming off things like Zero, Yoga, Spirituality, Worlds largest democracy, languages, Sanskrit etc.

But, when it comes to contribution which has effected Man's daily life across the world in the recent past, and we sincerely think about it, we really havent been able to do much.

Even those contributions which have come from Indians have mostly come abroad, in western institutions of US, UK, EU etc.(Remember Pranav mistry from MIT?).

Lot of us have questioned why is it that in spite of having a first class primary education system, we dont pursue excellence in thinking out of the box in our graduate programs, or for that matter our Post graduate programs?

It is a question we must seriously ponder over. A recent World economic forum ranking doesnt even list India as a nation spending anything significant (or even miniscule) towards R&D. No wonder we havent done much towards research or innovation.

But when I see these figures, It brings to my mind large number of advertisements I saw during the congress regime towards Biotechnology Research, and I am told by some senior scientists and doctors that the government is quite supportive of research in areas which can help in rural health, crop productivity and health, space research etc.

If this is true ( and I believe it is) then we must find out where is all this money going?  Why are we unable to do something real with it?

One thing which comes to my mind is the submissive culture we Indians have learnt to grow up in. Perhaps that (and our confused social fabric) doesnt allow us to experiment( remember the photo journalist in 3 idiots), or maybe even when it does, we are really looking at ways to make a quick saving which will allow us to get a route to western institutions where they pay better for research!?

Whatever the case may be, It is clear that there is a genuine need for us to think bigger, bolder and way out of the box which will allow our children to talk about contributions of not aryabhatta but a certain living Indian who has given the world while still in an Indian institution, what others couldnt in a foreign university like the MIT.

Some probable areas of research which can make a real change in lives could be Health (cure and vaccines for Malaria, Dengue, Cancer), Space exploration, Next thing in Information Technology, Credible alternatives for GM food without the side effects, Maybe a better Flying machine?.

Whatever that invention is, one thing is certain, we Indians, known for our Jugaad, Mehnat, and long lineage, do have the capability to still build an ecosystem which can foster the best brains in the country to come up with the next big innovation for the world.

With the new CSR spend rule, it will be worthwhile for large PSU and private companies to consider investing in New Age think tanks, Research focussed universities and setting up large scale scholarships and talent search competitions for innovative thinking and fresh ideas towards changing the world.

And, what better time for it than now, with our population demographics being in our favour compared to the world!

The Long road to development - The collapse of the Modi Mania!

The past 20 months have seen a huge roller coaster of expectation. First came the frenzy towards the Magical Modi Mania, then came the exuberence over his coronation, then people started talking about giving him "time", and now, off late, even the most ardent supporter is turning incredulous whenever he sees or hears about Modi or BJP!

Now,lets turn our attention towards other parts of the country:

a) North West : Saw upsets in Haryana & Delhi, challenges in Punjab(Akali Dal?), UP(Akhilesh?), MP(Vyapam?), Chattisgarh(Dr Raman Singh?), Maharshtra(Local issues), Rajasthan{Lalit Modi(who is the bad M now eh?)}, Delhi (Self Immolation)

b) South : Talk about Amma(Exoneration), Chandrababu Naidu (Exasperation) to DMK's (Decimation)

c) East : Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar - (Undergoing baptism by Fire), West bengal (Catch 22), the famed North east (getting a raw deal it seems)

Lets look at the financial indicators :

a) Taxation & Doing business has become tougher
b) Inflation, while under control is trying to rear its Ugly Head.
c) RBI still not toeing the Govt line, and keeping it under a leash
d) Collections still not pretty, and world is still under a lot of Stress
      (or is it Euress leading to Chess? (China's stress))

So all in all, a pretty topsy turvy year under the Modi regime till now.

However, there is a silver lining to all this. India's position in the world stage is more secure, and upright. PM Modi's foreign visit & Swachh Bharat has given a leg up to cross country travels, Better quality FDI and FII is expected within the ecosystem and Defense & Electronics manufacturing is sure to get a fillip.

But the view from the east is this :

1. Structural changes take time : Changes to NITI Aayog, National Rejuvenation Programs, restructuring of policies etc are all going to take atleast 2-3 more years to start being visible.
2. Subsidies are gone : Brace for high growth in exports and world trade when Oil increases and the common man is burdened with heavy burdens of unsubsidised fuel & gas.
3. Large scale cleanup of books effect short term funds availability hitting short term growth.
4. Cautionary stances adopted by Amma and Didi bode well for future legislations and remain to be seen how future work relationships are curated.
5. With above in mind, the author is convinced it will take atleast till October 2016 to even start seeing on ground activities on new projects, funds release in good flow and feel good stories.

But all said and done, one thing is for sure, people have finally realised(or slowly realising) that Hon'ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi is after all, a Human being. And with this, the people are feeling cheated. Everyone thought he was a Superhero (With the famed comic videos circulated through Namo's marketing team still fresh in everyone's mind), and wanted him to perform as he promised.

One fervently hopes the present BJP government and its office bearers are keeping this in mind while performing their daily duties. However, recent interactions by section of Business & Industry with several high profile senior ministers felt that the mood is high handed, and the result feather lite.

A very dangerous combination indeed.

Why Islamic State needs to be taken more seriously than Al qaeda?

I have been perturbed with the happenings around the world for a while now. Hence, finally got around to pen the same for your consumption, thoughts and comments.

If we look at the recent living history of the world(around 100 years), we find that the last war has been in Mid 1900's. 

If we go further to understand History(of say, 300 years), the world had an entirely different landscape, and every few decades, we can see a new reality(Political), with large incidences of sporadic wars in different areas of the world. 

Hence, the spell of over 6+ decades of lasting peace, is one of the longest peacetime experienced by the world, in spite of all its complexities.

A major reason for such lasting peace has been a systemic education of Humans, to lead lives in a particular order, with a dollop of Morality thrown in, to control passions and scope for Ambitions outside the lines drawn by the Western mandarins.

With increasing population of the world, the fight for resources, is only increasing by the day. Be it land, water, food, money, religion or might. The relatively recent occurrences of the small wars, over control of Energy supplies, started by USA, with Iraq, have slowly spread to different parts of the world. That very act of aggression by USA, kicked the status quo in the world, and it slowly started to manifest in a different problem all together. 

The response, manifested itself in a religious response, as a particular faith felt targeted and maligned. 

Very recently, that spark has turned into a fairly widespread act across the Middle World, where the status quo was challenged by the populace of many countries across the Middle east, known as the Arab Spring.

This act, caused a great deal of consternation among Theorists and Politicians across the world. However, some economies, considered the same to be in their interest, as a democracy is easier to break into(or break apart), than a monarchy(which has a tight control over the national interest).

Behind the backdrop of these acts of freedom, aggression, and calls for religious fanaticism, a quiet, but dangerous change in mindset has undergone among a section of humans, with access to power & money.

These people, seem to be fedup with the current world order, and believe, time has come to bring back long lost glories, by taking things by force. They have also decided that moral values, need to take a back seat, till religious supremacy is established across a large part of the world, which they consider theirs by right. 

Owing to this very change in mindset, which the western world never thought could happen with all their checks and balances in place, has led to a very dangerous precedent being set in the world with the installation of the Islamic State. 

For the first time, a breakaway terrorist group has been able to secure Illegitimacy, wherein they have been able to secure a regular source of income from a large section of a society, over a fair amount of geography, where they Rule is the Law. 

They are no more outlaws, and control state machinery, Oil, Power & collect taxes from a large populace.

This, in turn is allowing them to generate greater power and increase their presence in the world. Few Comparison charts are given below for understanding better(Pictures courtesy the Economist & the Washington Post)

If you go through the Maps in detail, you will realise the extent of the problem, and this is the reason why We need to fear the IS. They are here, have dug their heels, and with every passing day, they are becoming more difficult to penetrate.  

Their are reports that they are earning 20-30 million USD per day. That gives them enough resources to recruit greater number of people, who in turn can help in garnering greater resources.

Worse, such success of a group, is making other terrorist organisations think on these lines. This spells trouble for the modern Political world.

Till now, it seems the world is looking towards the USA, to respond(As the leader of the free world!), and honestly, Obama seems to be confused on what to do.

China, Russia and other larger nations, each have their own goals to meet, and don't want to commit resources at this time when they know the US will need to response sooner or later. 

But one thing is certain, with the Arab spring; Russia's Military actions in the Ukraine & Crimea; China's military posturing against Japan, India, Philippines & Indonesia; an unstable North Korea; Slowing European Union; Terror organisations like IS gaining legitimacy and a stagnant USA, all point towards a very difficult half century ahead.

The Game of Thrones

 I have been watching the political theatre from a distance, and closely over the past 2 months, at times bemused by the happenings.

1. AAP leaving Power at Delhi, and coming up in Full blown election gear : Arvind Kejriwal left his CM chair at Delhi and got into full electioneering form. His unabashed attempt at employing all tactics his rivals have been doing since independence is there for all to see and understand.

At least he should have the good sense to finally accept, that AAP is trying to take power, in any manner possible.

However, the Indian middle class voter is not happy at how they have seemingly cheated them, and we can expect a wide movement of their votes back to BJP. This means, AAP is going to cut into Congress more than BJP this time, and we are looking at a washout in these elections barring a few good candidates like Gul Panag, who may be able to get good votes in cities like Chandigarh.

2. Regional Parties : From Didi to Amma,  They have been blowing their trumpets on how the regional federation will take power at the centre with tacit backing by the BJP/Congress and they will be running the country for the next five years. With Didi even agreeing on national television, she is willing to not attempt for PM’s position, if a third front does become  a reality.

However, its easier said than done. The regional parties are themselves facing a tough battle in their home grounds, owing to all parties fielding contestants, either to win, or to cut votes.

3. Congress : They have all  agreed that they have to lose. Most are mentally prepared, and those that aren’t, are only trying to put up a brave face in the media to at least ensure they are alive.
However, its too early to write off the grand old party.
Let’s not forget Sonia is a mastermind. And she is capable of delivering a master stroke depending on how the chips fall.

4. BJP : Narendra modi has only increased his grip on the Party which fancies itself as the next government in waiting, with senior leaders already behaving like ministers, and packing bags to move to delhi.

He has been systematically approaching each state, district, tehsil and marking out his plan objectively. To ensure he doesn't mess up at his best, and possibly, the only chance he will get to become Prime Minister of India.

His lieutenants are doing a commendable job  at making sure, they are able to get every math right.

It appears he is able to take the right steps, as his rivals are increasingly worried. Especially in the crucial states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar & Rajasthan. He is also going ahead and taking some unpopular decisions in order to ensure support in pockets where otherwise they don’t stand a chance, like Karnataka, where they have added Sri Rama Sena Chief Pramod Muthalik in an attempt to garner votes., or Barmer where he stuck to his guns and gave the seat to the ex-congressman to ensure victory for BJP.

They are very clear, just because a Hindu is chief of a Hindu organization, there is no reason why he cannot be a supporter of the Bharatiya Janata Party ideology. While many may not be convinced by the argument, I would say its better they are part of the BJP and in control, rather than outside the BJP and creating problems!

Also, I am given to understand, this time, BJP’s choice of leaders/nominees in UP are very good and they are going to come up with Surprisingly good numbers. On the other side, Mayawati is expected make good gains at SP’s expense.

BJP is also expected to increase vote shares nationally, thus giving them a lease of life in states where till now they do not have a good presence.

Jagan has already said he is going to support whoever has the best chance of making a government at the centre, as long as they agree to give funds to Seemandhara. Trinamool is also expected to give outside support to BJP in case they are unable to form a federal front, but only if BJP gives West Bengal the fresh lease of life in form of Money.

Karnataka BJP has a better chance this time, with Yedurappa with them.

On the whole, it seems Narendra Modi has made a decent effort at cobbling together  a set of processes, people and clever media management to ensure victory.

All said and done, the Indian Populace has the best chance yet, what with Online voter registrations, so much of youth engagement at various levels like online, social, TV, nukkad sabhas, which till now have been largely within the lower strata of the population and a few inclined towards politics.

Hence it is our duty to ensure a decisive victory for whichever party we chose to elect to power.

India needs a strong party with a decisive leader on the throne. Period.

THE AAP Googly!

As late as 3 months back, Narendra Modi was the seemingly invincible hero; the messiah of good governance who would be able to deliver us from the nonchalance and madness that has become Congress.

The Delhi elections and the position of the BJP to not engage in horse trading, in hindsight, seems to have boomeranged on them. With the AAP forming a government at Delhi, they suddenly have become the new twister, blowing in full force!

Fresh faces, Delhi's closeness to the power center, huge funds from abroad, and the middle class from India, all make AAP an interesting threat to the Indian democracy.

On one hand, they have made cleanliness fashionable. On the other, lack of experience, necessary time and sheer wherewithal to fight the established forces of Congress, BJP, regional parties like the BJD, TMC, AIADMK etc makes their prospect at best that of a party with 30-40 seats.

The dreamers would smirk at the above number and talk of fanciful 70's and some even bold enough to talk 80's.

However, lets consider this. Any of those numbers just speak one thing. They would have to get together with the regional parties and look at a third front, with support from Congress for formation of a government. This is the utopian scenario.

In a nutshell, AAP only means instability at the center for atleast next 24 months.

Then where is the difference in AAP and the other established players?

Till such time, they are able to show real work in Delhi, and work their way up, I sincerely believe, that AAP is bad for the country, specially at this juncture.

I do believe they should look at taking 15-20 seats, get a fair representation in the Lok Sabha, and raise issues relevant to the country. Their presence itself in the polity will ensure lot of rectifications like is already evident in the selection process of candidates for BJP, Congress etc for 2014 polls.

I believe that if AAP is talking of ridding India of corruption, then instead of doling out sops to show to the voters they are "delivering", they should focus on real change in the way things work in Delhi, and become a responsible presence in the Lok sabha.

That will take time, but they would be able to create more credibility for themselves. Unlike the rat race that appears to have started within AAP for a share of the media frenzy, or the race for good seats & ministerships.

 Friendly advice for the AAP : Beware, the Aam Aadmi is watching!

My take on the Dollar Rupee Conundrum

There has been extensive media coverage on the issue of the falling value of the Rupee owing to a strengthening US economy and deep fault lines in the Indian economic indicators. Continued media coverage is also fuelling the panic among Indian citizens and also to an extent Foreign investors.

The way media has been covering the issue, it seems that this is a huge shock to the Indian administration, and that the Polity in general & the business community in particular has been caught unawares.

Frankly, I am bemused.

To set the context, let us understand what happened during the time of the quantitative easing period. In order allow Rupee to be reasonably depreciated, the government allowed free imports of electronics, and all sundry items that you could think of. This led to a deluge of imported goods (a lot of it needless viz gift items, gold, flat tv’s etc) .

This was fine, but, since there was no clear policy on creating the necessary ecosystem(Infrastructure, Policy framework, Sops) to allow a mature manufacturing sector to develop, a huge systemic imbalance was created.

This led to an excessive reliance on imported goods (as above) and services(Google, Blackberry etc). It fuelled a huge imbalance in the trade between India and individual countries like China, Taiwan, USA, Russia, Thailand etc. In fact each FTA that the Indian government has signed in last 10 years has led to a widening trade deficit with each of those countries. Hardly any FTA has actually resulted in benefitting Indian trade.

Also, a strengthening of the INR along with policy paralysis, led to a slowdown in the export manufacturing & services economy. Sectors like Leather, handicrafts, capital goods, BPO were all hit hard, and the growth went to countries like Romania, Philippines, Thailand, bangldesh etc. To add to this, the Indian government’s target of kick starting a revolution in the Indian Electronics manufacturing has largely been a non-starter. I can’t think of 5 big names that India has produced in electronics, whose manufacturing base in India. Almost all electronics/home appliances based brands are relying heavily on imports.

Add to this the borrowing binge the corporates/banks went on, to raise foreign capital in 2008-2010. It was a crystal clear even then that once the US Economy starts recovering(the green shoots were visible early last year with US unemployment data and housing market receoveries), and when the QE would start being withdrawn, along with the maturity of global corporate/bank Bonds, the Indian rupee would come under tremendous pressure.

Hence, one thing is clear, any economist who had even basic reading of the Indian economy knew this was going to happen. I had received early indications of Rupee facing massive volatility before settling down between Rs 70-75 to a dollar within a year. Analysts even at the lower rung of the establishment, were aware of the same. This research was shared as early as in January 2013.

This is the reason, why while the fall of the rupee is talk of the town, hardly anyone is seen crying owing to the same. In my view, most of the importers had already hedged their exposures (those who didn’t, really don’t have a good understanding, or stupid advisors). Most of the punters had already gone short on the equities, and heavily bet on Gold over past 2-3 months.

Given the above context, I am of the opinion, that the fall of the rupee is a carefully orchestrated event, played by the mandarins who run south bloc.

I sincerely believe, while it will hurt us immensely in the short run, in the long run, it may actually kick start the export led economy. However, for it to happen, our government needs to start implementation of Export sops along with manufacturing incentives to domestic investors, who can help put the exports back on track. Services exports will also become immensely competitive, and we may be in a position to get business back from countries like Bangladesh, Thaliand, Philippines & China.

Import controls, will take away bulk of the unnecessary imports, and will make the electronics giants like Sony and Samsung, sincerely consider setting up manufacturing lines in India for their electronic goods.

However, for any of it to make an impact, we need to wait for atleast 18-24 months. In this time, a clear mandate for the new regime will be visible, aftershocks owing to rupee(Price increases, real estate bubble burst, equity crash etc.) would have settled down, new export capacities would have come in and hopefully we will start hearing from foreign investors on big ticket investment projects in India.

And I fervently hope that, having learnt from this turn of events, our new government would take proactive steps to restrict Google, Apple, Yahoo, Wechat, facebook, Whatsapp, Blackberry, Belkin, Chinese electronics giants; who have already entrenched themselves into every data point in  our lives. If this goes on, they are and will securely be in a more dominant position to control us over next 3-4 decades.

In my considered opinion, this is the real threat to India in the 21^st century.

With all the bad press about China’s restrictive policy on Google, Apple may have created; one thing is for certain, China has insulated itself by having its own internet fiefdom, Media conglomerates, automobile manufacturing, trade services, Mobile telephony, mobile applications & Aerospace.

In the event of the world going to a war, while India has to be a slave to US, Russia, Middle east & EU for all Internet, Communication tools, Oil & Defense supplies, China will be completely self-reliant with only having to secure Oil lines from the Middle East & few other countries, where it has already setup a robust network to ensure reliable supply lines in the worst case scenarios.

So, to sum it up, forget the brouhaha on the fall of the rupee. It is a planned move. Just try to keep your head above water for the next 18 months, and you should be fine.

And to the Media, while marketing your channels through fear mongering, please take up the real issues, like the internet infrastructure, population database & web based communication lines in the digital age which have all been conveniently sold to foreigners.

Namo Mantra Vs the Old Guard

I have been following the television news channels, since the BJP National Executive began. With all the clamour going on over the past few days on the news, with Advani no show, Narendra Modi being elevated to Campaign chairman to now Mr Advani resigning; I would like to throw a different perspective to the saga.

I think that the frantic activity within the BJP over the past few days are not a surprise to all the senior BJP functionaries. It is all a part of the natural tectonic shifts in the corridors of power of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Since the time Narendra Modi won the Gujarat election, he had made his ambitions very clear. Subtle signals of his ascension in the BJP were evident when he was suddenly allowed to project a national image, along with selective public engagements in different parts of the country like Kolkata & Karnataka.

For the BJP to really do something meaningful in 2014, Mr Modi has made it very clear to the people who matter(RSS), that he needs total control. This is the only way, he can go beyond old loyalties and ruthlessly deal with countering congress in every state in the country.

It is jocular to believe that the BJP top people(Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Sushma swaraj et al) didn't know that if they annointed Modi as the campaign chief, then Mr Advani would resign. I would like to believe that they have taken a considered view that whatever be the cost, they have no choice but to annoint Mr Modi as the campaign chief, as without him, they do not stand a chance. More so, as the common man of the country today believes him to be the most natural leader within the BJP.

Consider this, with Mr Advani resigning, and his loyalists marginalised, Mr Modi & BJP has the following benefits :

1. Much less intervention from the advani camp in rolling out his plans.
2. An Advani from the outside can do much less damage than he could do from within the BJP.
3. Some of his loyalists may switch over to the pro modi camp, to ensure a meaningful existence within BJP
4. Such noise in the Media will die down within 2-3 months, when Mr Modi can start raking up other more relevant issues facing the common people of the country. Within this time, Mr Modi can also make the necessary organisational changes.
5. Most importantly, there will be clarity. Whether good or bad, BJP will know that they have to swim or sink with Mr Modi. This will ensure most of the people on the ground to fall in line with whatever Mr Modi wants executed.


With regards to the NDA, there could be several permutations & combinations which Mr Modi would have taken into account while taking the above decisions. Addition of parties like :
1. Jayalalitha
2. Mamata Banerjee
3. Jagan (Telengana creation has already been announced by the BJP)
4. BJP gaining on its own in UP, Bihar, North Eastern states
5. Possible increase in vote share in other pro hindu belts
6. Akali Dal has already made enough noises about being in support of Namo
7. Bringing back Yedurappa in Karanataka

With the above major metrics in place, losing an ally like the JD(U) can be countered effectively and a new front can emerge as the NDA.

To sum it up, while the noises in the Media may make it sound like Advani resigning is a loss in the short term, I would like to believe that this is extremely good for the future of BJP, and actually improves its chances in the 2014 polls.

Perhaps Goa is indeed lucky for Narendra Modi!

Rajasthan : Rule of the Land Mafia!

The uncanny business sense of the Mariwari Businessman is envied by one and sundry. Around independence and for a long time thereafter, a large number of Marwari's left their arid homeland in search of better economic prospects and settled in states across the country. They became the bedrock of the business activities in large business centers controlling a fair share of the trade in the local area of operation. The biggest face of the Marwari success were the likes the Birla's, Kothari's, Jalan's, Bajoria and many more.

Between the 60's to the 90's, when the successful families had amassed reasonable (and some obscene) fortunes. They started giving back to their homeland, as they felt they should do something for their state, where they traced their roots. 

Large tracts of land were given on charity to benefit the society by the bigger families. People also spent large amounts of money on setting up temples, sprucing local landscapes, charitable hospitals, schools, colleges in Rajasthan to empower the local youth, and to allow their family members to find a connect to the state, which had become more of a holiday home for an annual holiday than anything else. Some very large charitable works like the Pinjrapol Society were also setup to provide care for cows considered Holy by them.  These charitable institutions were not only limited to Rajasthan, but also in the local communities where they operated their various businesses.

Things were going on fine as late as the 1995-2000. Post 2002, the land rates jumped in Rajasthan just like other parts of the country. Also, Tourism found India, for any visiting foreigner, the deserts & palaces of Rajasthan offered a great sight. It was part of the golden triangle where a tourist definitely visits New Delhi, Rajasthan & the Taj Mahal before flying out. The growth of Gurgaon and the Delhi-jaipur corridor brought in further business and industries. Then came the Oil find in Bikaner. 

Rajasthan was always hot. But now it became a welcome heat!

A large number of Havelis left empty by the families had been left on the mercy of the old caretakers (A family confidante), who were supposed to take care of the property and local affairs. Suddenly with the increase in the local tourism, and interest in antique furniture & Doors in the Havelis, they started cannibalising the property. Some people even started renting out the place to Tourists officially.  

                                                                      Haveli Grabbing

All these factors contributed, suddenly it was found, a very active Land Mafia started gaining gound.

Specially so, over the past 6-7 years, wherein successive governments have given full support to the land mafia. The past three years have seen an emboldening of the land mafia, with full support of the government departments like Forest Department, Forest Rangers, Collectors etc.

Land Grab Case in Rajasthan 2005

The author has personally spoken to 5-6 people involved in the land racket in connection with helping someone recover his property which has come into question because of the activities of the land mafia. The whole group is firmly entrenched in the key government functionaries, with annual targets for fund collection being given to each group. They are systematically going through all the lands which are owned by people not living in the state, and systematically grabbing it through support from the government departments and Local strongmen. 

http://www.mykishangarh.com/2011/03/kishangarh-mla-sinodias-son-shoot-dead.html

http://www.breakingnewsonline.net/entertainment/11697-rise-of-land-mafia-in-india.html

On approach to the civil servants, Police & administration, no one is forthcoming in support. Lack of difitisation of land records in the state is preventing ascertainment of recorded ownership and information flow. RTI applications are being bounced from department to department in an attempt to delay and withhold information, by which time the land mafia does its job.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/rajasthan-court-orders-fir-against-vasundhra-raje-and-her-son/1/167559.html

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2007-09-10/india/27985745_1_land-mafia-bighas-village

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/rajasthan-cm-gehlots-son-linked-to-land-mafia/752980/

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120222/bathinda.htm#1

http://getup4change.org/rti/11740/land-grabing/

http://vspaliwalkt.instablogs.com/entry/bhawani-singh-chauhan-the-most-corrupt-of-rajasthan/

The above links would be able to justify the claim that the land mafia has now become a menace with its increasingly emboldened activities which have started hitting on charity lands & even land owned by the small & medium size families which perhaps don't have too much money to fight these people, but have got some property in their homeland, which are also being taken away from them.

It is time, the people living outside the state unite and raise their collective voice against these activities, as else very soon they will realise they have been stripped off their ancestral lands. 

Saurabh Kedia

(Disclaimer : The author is a Marwari and has also been at the receiving end of this problem. On digging deeper in order to protect his interest, he came across this wider, social problem, and noticing the bigger issue involved, felt it needs to be highlighted. This article has not been written in self interest, as the ancestral property in question is not a very big amount in value.)

The U.P. Debate - Who wins?

Lot has been & will be said on the Uttar Pradesh Elections over the past month and in coming week. Initial exit polls suggest a resurgent SP and likely fallout maybe coming together of Congress with BSP, or BJP & BSP getting together. ( eg : http://ibnlive.in.com/news/hung-assembly-in-up-exit-polls/top/37959-4.html, http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.in/). The way I see it, even the horse trading post results may not really help the opposition, and Akhilesh Yadav should easily sweep the electoral battle with a comfortable majority. Having seen this sweeping polarising the last time round with the BSP in UP & TMC in West Bengal, I am somehow convinced Akhilesh has won this time round.

Whatever the result, One must accept, It is not a an easy task to reposition the brand of a party like Samajwadi Party, which has a history of violence & hooliganism. To turn that around to a "Umeed ki Cycle" in spite of having the highest percentage of candidates with criminal backgrounds/charges(http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-crorepatis-and-criminals-prevail-in-uttar-pradesh-election/20120227.htm) is a commendable job. Also, in spite of extensive use of technology, money & dynastic politics in its electoral battle, Akhilesh has emerged as the son of Uttar Pradesh & friend of the young. He has emerged as the hope of the downtrodden, Hindu & Muslim alike.

The biggest loser in this whole battle in spite of doing lot of hard work is Rahul Gandhi. He seems to have lost tack of the game plan with Akhilesh upsetting his bandwagon. Also his total reliance on Digvijay Singh, seems to have backfired this time round, although no one will admit that in public. There have been murmurs of dissatisfaction with Digvijay's style of functioning, and the toe toeing to the Dynastic Politics by the Congress Party. Also, Rahul has been unable to make himself believable as the "people's man" in spite of having enough time & support to prove himself, which has really hurt his credentials.

 People would have reacted more positively to Priyanka Gandhi than to anyone else in Uttar Pradesh, and if Congress really wants to regain power on its own here then probably, it is time it seriously starts propping up Priyanka as its future rather than Rahul.

While different Exit polls offer varying suggestions, one thing is clear, Akhilesh Yadav is here to stay, and will be a major force to reckon with in the next two decades. With a dearth of young composed leaders who are in touch with the masses while having a mature history & a modern outlook to back them, Akhilesh Yadav is surely cementing his place in the political arena with his hard work & calculated gambles.