Indian politics : The Apathy of leaders in the future.

The election season is here, and how!

No one could have predicted the Pulwama Attack, and definitely not the airstrike against Pakistan on their own soil! The surge in nationalistic sentiments post the event have also changed the narrative of the pre election discourse.

Given the BJP offensive on nationalism, the congress represented by Mrs Priyanka Gandhi & Mr Rahul Gandhi have realised that it's a do or die situation for the Congress this time. They have realised that they need to come back to power, at any cost, whether their own or of the country.

The congress president has been painstakingly putting out one idea a night since the past few days, promising seemingly impossible dreams, doles & dough.  Direct transfer of Rs 72000 per year to 5 crore families means a direct cost to the country of Rs 3.6 lac crore! To manage the same, congress leaders have suggested that the money will be recovered through higher taxes on the middle class.

What they have failed to mention is the crushing impact it will have over the next 3 years on the Indian economy. With 5 crore families getting 72000 surplus income, there will be an upsurge in rural demand, and prices of fruits, vegetables etc will see a big rise. To compound the problem, the additional burden on the middle class will necessitate raising the wages, and make India more costly in global competitiveness. The twin impact of both will be high inflation, low expansion, and possibly job cuts in face of a slowing economy/low growth in real income.

Since the past 3 months I have been observing Rahul Gandhi, and found him to a far more mature face than before. Not getting into unnecessary spats, and focusing attention on creating his own narrative. There was a brief period when I actually started thinking maybe, just maybe, he may have some sense in what he says.

But the recent comments and promises by him on social media, and finally through release of the Congress Manifesto, I was flabbergasted by the extent of promises they have made to the Indian populace.

Congress has identified the opposition voice in every sphere and tried to capitalise on the same by offering them whatever they have wanted. To name a few :
1. Low jobs : They will fill all government vacancies
2. Retired army personnel : We will offer jobs in CRPF
3. Low farmer income : We will offer direct cash to you
4. Angel Tax: We will abolish the same
5. AFSPA : We will water it down/abolish same
6. J&K : We will reduce army and have unconditional talks

What the above tells me that in the quest for power, he has shown reckless abandon towards the future of the country, and promised whatever it takes, to be able to get attention and turn that attention into votes.

To me, this in itself, disqualifies him to be a PM candidate. A PM candidate has to continuously think of whats best for the country & its citizens regardless of what is considered to be good or bad.

Mr Modi, on his part has been continuing on his offensive on nationalism, past work, and future promise of his sheer hard work, regardless of what Congress says.

Among all this noise between the Congress, BJP & the Mahagathbandhan, what worries me more is far deeper.

If we take a step back and look at the political landscape, I see the following :

1. Congress - A Dynasty trying to save their hold on the Indian Political landscape, whatever the cost.

2. BJP - A party trying to change the narrative by capitalising on the opportunity to polarise votes on lines of nationalism or religion coupled with development targets.

3. Regional parties trying to remove the idea of BJP/Modi who has projected himself to be the only National Leader capable of delivering the goods. These regional parties are polarising voters through their own agenda of polarising people on basis of caste, creed, regional identity & religion.

4. Fringe leaders like Kanhaiya, Hardik, Jignesh, Ghelani who are fanning communal/caste identities in their areas of influence trying to win voters through all sorts of Political Maths.

When we see the above, and really think about it, I fear that once we have lost out on a mass leader like Modi in maybe the next 10-15 years, what kind of people really are there to take us forward?

On this day, we have rabble rousing leaders like Owaisi, Ghelani, Mehbooba, Kanhaiya etc each of whom have an agenda, which is not necessarily nationalistic. At least their public meetings dont tell us that.

Congress, on its part, seems to be unable to find a real, long term viable solution, as the current manifesto that they have released seems like one where they are ready to let go of everything. Economic stability, J&K, Chinese disputed territories, buckling under minority pressures are all on the table as options for the Grand Old Party.

BJP, on its part has leaders, but apart from Modi, at this time, they don't have anyone with the same national appeal, performance graph or grasp on the political mindscape to take over. Younger leaders like Smriti Irani, Youth leader Anurag etc are all ok, but seemingly not PM material.

Maybe we will see entry of better viable candidates who can come and change the narrative when the opportunity presents itself, because if not, I personally, am extremely worried about the future of India in the 2030's and beyond.

Demonetisation begins an era of adjusting economy

India's economic landscape as we used to know it before November 8, is gone forever.

The business community has to adjust to a new reality. How do you work without 'adjustments'!

To think of it, adjusting is part of Indian ethos, with Wives adjusting with Husbands, Sons adjusting with parents, Citizens adjusting with Governments, even Birds & Animals adjusting with Humans!

So, to think of a life without scope for adjustments, is something that we Indians havent done in generations together.

The culture of not giving enough to the government perhaps started with the Indians not wanting to give enough to the government which was run by the British. You tried to save what you could from the Elite Angrez.  Post independence, while a large section of the society became patriotic, and contributed what they could to the country, the government had to help kickstart and stabilise the economy by freebies, doles & licences.

The license raj fostered a culture of 'payments' & 'cuts' and a privileged few got immense benefits while the poor remained poor. Government investments did not take place as was promised, and the middle class & poor felt dis-enfranchised.

Thus came the period, where Indians felt it was 'right' to not share their profits completely, as anyway the government didn't do enough for them. Business families have diligently taught children how to dress books in order to retain what they considered what was their 'fair' share. Somewhere down the line this 'fair share' turned into a 'lion's share' and thats where the country started hurting. The abolition of licenses gave birth to bigger malaise in forms of everyday corruption. The entry of foreigners into the country and the prospects of large deals prompted large scale corruption in government purchases, public investments.

Such capitalism brought about more malaise in the Political establishment, which in turn made the public feel, it was 'ok' to cheat. This brought an era where keeping your cut became fashionable. Hell, even priests kept their cut from the Gods!

Then came the first post independence Prime Minister of our country, Shri Narendra Modi. On 8 November 2016, He said ' why should everyone steal from everyone?'. What if the government gets all this money? That will potentially change the political landscape for him going forward.

He precisely attempted to remove all cash from everyone's hands and asked everyone to put it in banks, and government coffers. So he banned all Rs 500 & Rs 1000 notes, comprising of 86% of cash in circulation.

Suddenly, the Economy and its servants were in panic. They didn't know what to do. well, they (we) had never done something like this. It was like coming clean as never before! Thus started the biggest cleanup in Indian history. Notes were searched for in every nook & corner(literally) of the country's households & offices. everyone had to come clean on how much money they had. Fathers to sons, sons to fathers, sisters to brothers, even wives to husbands!

This brought a strange new reality to us. We have never known how to be absolutely true like this. It was like an economic apocalypse for a large large section of the economy. Businessmen who used to show off their ill gotten wealth suddenly felt their lives crashing down around them. In moments, what used to be the best way to make money, suddenly seemed gone.

Even then, the goodness that is India, every person said, affected or not, It is good for the country. In long term, the country will benefit.

However, no one had bargained for the turmoil that the country will face in the coming days. People were suddenly without any cash! Turns out event the poor also had mostly Rs 500 & Rs 1000 notes. they began queueing up at banks, post offices, markets where-ever the notes were accepted. But alas, there simply wasn't enough.

The government realised that they don't have that many notes to distribute that fast. They had thought that the people would have some more money, and they would be able to wait. But the people felt that even if I dont need the money, let me take some notes and save, just in case!

This gave the opposing politicians (who had most to lose) an opportunity. They started fanning the fire, and it spread. With each passing day, situation became better, but still the hunger for cash grew stronger. The reality of cash in the Indian society came to fore.

The above story, when reflected for its true impact has the following facets to it, Social, Political & Economic.

The Society has seen one of the greatest redistribution of wealths in the history of our country. Never before have the rich begged the meek(poor) for helping them 'adjust' their money. Business owners had to come clean in front of their people on the extent of their riches. A large section of the poor felt that for the first time, they have the upper hand. Even the Middle class and the salaried class felt very happy that the rich are troubled. This is their time, they have felt.

Social divide has become sharper, however, the poor's irritation with government has gone in a different direction, with them feeling the government didn't do 'anything' to 'too much'!

The Economic Impact is something that the government hadn't bargained for. India has been the fastest growing economy off late. The wheels of trade which had gained speed and traction for the past three months of August, September & October, had to apply a huge 'shuttle break', bringing the massively growing economy to a wheezing, grinding halt. Businesses which had maximum cash component in them suddenly didn't know how to operate.

Every individual started focussing on how to 'manage' what they had first. Business could come later. The survival instincts of our populace was clearly demonstrated in this 'extinction level event', so to speak.

The first hit have been industries like Food(fruits & vegetables, and consequently processed foods), Cloth(all forms and entire value chain), Farmer chain like Milk, PVC cloth, Jewellery, real estate, large trade centers like Delhi, Kolkata, Ichhal Karanji, Surat, Mumbai etc. This was bourne out from interviews with seniormost bankers in the country.

Then came the second wave where the entire economy felt the impact with massive breakdown in trade in industries like Automobile, Retail, Luxury Goods and each and every section of the trade.
Trade bodies like FICCI, CII, FADA & SIAM have said that the trade is down by 30-40% and they are planning largescale production cuts. Banks have been warned of very high NPA's given the cash crunch with people & businesses.

Highly capital intensive industries have to contend with the new reality of people suddenly not spending. This is specially painful as H2 of any financial year, is when people have prepared for large growth, and hence all investments, plans have been made as aggressively. This slowdown will have further impact of massive retrenchments across the board.

Thus, the salaried class, which has been largely happy till now, has reason to worry. Given the sudden change in climate, businesses will run to cut costs, sharply. The first to bear the brunt has to be to costs on manpower.

This, will have large impact on the consumption industries. This, is the real worry for the government. Unless they bring  a kicker to the economy, it will be very difficult to revive the suddnly spluttering, flailing & Fluttering behemoth that it has become in the past 2 weeks.

So, the Economic impact has been far greater than the social benefit that the country has witnessed. The next 8-12 months are gone as far as business & growth is concerned.

As we all know, Politics trumps Society & Economy. This is what has prompted the above scene of misery & anguish.

Like promised, Mr Modi has taken steps in order to secure his future in the Indian Polity for the next decade or so. For this, he knows he needs to win states like UP & Punjab. Hence the sudden need to change his voter base. In one swift movement, he has changed his supporters from traders, businessmen, jewellers, Gujaratis & like to the poor, masses, downtrodden, dis-enfranchised et al.

He has also removed the entire cash hoard with his competitors like the Congress, BSP, TMC, SP. Politicans like Mamata Banerjee took the first stand against the move, sensing a reality to gain support from the muslim voter group. She crafted an alliance with Arvind kejriwal and others. So grand has been the impact on the competition that even his staunchest of supporters like TDP have come out against the policy.

One curious fallout of this action has been the hardship to the muslims, who as a community, have the lowest penetration in the banking channel, as their law prohibits them from taking loans or earning interest. This community had always kept money at home, rather than in banks.

Political Pundits surmise without the cash that has helped governments stay in power, it will be extremely difficult for BSP, SP and Congress to wage a good war with Modi's BJP. Its almost certain now for the BJP to come to power in UP, by those estimates.

This reason, above all, has been behind the action in a marriage month of November, just before onset of the winter festivities. So what, if large section of the poor has faced harships, business had to undergo a huge difficulty. The expected loss of business to a large section of trade is significant, and yet to be quantified.

Hence, while the BJP may have felt that they have won the war, it is likely that they would lose the battle, with a large section of the society as collateral damage towards its goal of political legacy.

If only, it could have been implemented well!

Why Indians cant Invent?

We Indians are pretty smug when it comes to our contribution of Zero to the world.

Whenever anyone asks the question "what's India's contribution to the world ? " and we start reaming off things like Zero, Yoga, Spirituality, Worlds largest democracy, languages, Sanskrit etc.

But, when it comes to contribution which has effected Man's daily life across the world in the recent past, and we sincerely think about it, we really havent been able to do much.

Even those contributions which have come from Indians have mostly come abroad, in western institutions of US, UK, EU etc.(Remember Pranav mistry from MIT?).

Lot of us have questioned why is it that in spite of having a first class primary education system, we dont pursue excellence in thinking out of the box in our graduate programs, or for that matter our Post graduate programs?

It is a question we must seriously ponder over. A recent World economic forum ranking doesnt even list India as a nation spending anything significant (or even miniscule) towards R&D. No wonder we havent done much towards research or innovation.

But when I see these figures, It brings to my mind large number of advertisements I saw during the congress regime towards Biotechnology Research, and I am told by some senior scientists and doctors that the government is quite supportive of research in areas which can help in rural health, crop productivity and health, space research etc.

If this is true ( and I believe it is) then we must find out where is all this money going?  Why are we unable to do something real with it?

One thing which comes to my mind is the submissive culture we Indians have learnt to grow up in. Perhaps that (and our confused social fabric) doesnt allow us to experiment( remember the photo journalist in 3 idiots), or maybe even when it does, we are really looking at ways to make a quick saving which will allow us to get a route to western institutions where they pay better for research!?

Whatever the case may be, It is clear that there is a genuine need for us to think bigger, bolder and way out of the box which will allow our children to talk about contributions of not aryabhatta but a certain living Indian who has given the world while still in an Indian institution, what others couldnt in a foreign university like the MIT.

Some probable areas of research which can make a real change in lives could be Health (cure and vaccines for Malaria, Dengue, Cancer), Space exploration, Next thing in Information Technology, Credible alternatives for GM food without the side effects, Maybe a better Flying machine?.

Whatever that invention is, one thing is certain, we Indians, known for our Jugaad, Mehnat, and long lineage, do have the capability to still build an ecosystem which can foster the best brains in the country to come up with the next big innovation for the world.

With the new CSR spend rule, it will be worthwhile for large PSU and private companies to consider investing in New Age think tanks, Research focussed universities and setting up large scale scholarships and talent search competitions for innovative thinking and fresh ideas towards changing the world.

And, what better time for it than now, with our population demographics being in our favour compared to the world!

The Long road to development - The collapse of the Modi Mania!

The past 20 months have seen a huge roller coaster of expectation. First came the frenzy towards the Magical Modi Mania, then came the exuberence over his coronation, then people started talking about giving him "time", and now, off late, even the most ardent supporter is turning incredulous whenever he sees or hears about Modi or BJP!

Now,lets turn our attention towards other parts of the country:

a) North West : Saw upsets in Haryana & Delhi, challenges in Punjab(Akali Dal?), UP(Akhilesh?), MP(Vyapam?), Chattisgarh(Dr Raman Singh?), Maharshtra(Local issues), Rajasthan{Lalit Modi(who is the bad M now eh?)}, Delhi (Self Immolation)

b) South : Talk about Amma(Exoneration), Chandrababu Naidu (Exasperation) to DMK's (Decimation)

c) East : Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar - (Undergoing baptism by Fire), West bengal (Catch 22), the famed North east (getting a raw deal it seems)

Lets look at the financial indicators :

a) Taxation & Doing business has become tougher
b) Inflation, while under control is trying to rear its Ugly Head.
c) RBI still not toeing the Govt line, and keeping it under a leash
d) Collections still not pretty, and world is still under a lot of Stress
      (or is it Euress leading to Chess? (China's stress))

So all in all, a pretty topsy turvy year under the Modi regime till now.

However, there is a silver lining to all this. India's position in the world stage is more secure, and upright. PM Modi's foreign visit & Swachh Bharat has given a leg up to cross country travels, Better quality FDI and FII is expected within the ecosystem and Defense & Electronics manufacturing is sure to get a fillip.

But the view from the east is this :

1. Structural changes take time : Changes to NITI Aayog, National Rejuvenation Programs, restructuring of policies etc are all going to take atleast 2-3 more years to start being visible.
2. Subsidies are gone : Brace for high growth in exports and world trade when Oil increases and the common man is burdened with heavy burdens of unsubsidised fuel & gas.
3. Large scale cleanup of books effect short term funds availability hitting short term growth.
4. Cautionary stances adopted by Amma and Didi bode well for future legislations and remain to be seen how future work relationships are curated.
5. With above in mind, the author is convinced it will take atleast till October 2016 to even start seeing on ground activities on new projects, funds release in good flow and feel good stories.

But all said and done, one thing is for sure, people have finally realised(or slowly realising) that Hon'ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi is after all, a Human being. And with this, the people are feeling cheated. Everyone thought he was a Superhero (With the famed comic videos circulated through Namo's marketing team still fresh in everyone's mind), and wanted him to perform as he promised.

One fervently hopes the present BJP government and its office bearers are keeping this in mind while performing their daily duties. However, recent interactions by section of Business & Industry with several high profile senior ministers felt that the mood is high handed, and the result feather lite.

A very dangerous combination indeed.

The Game of Thrones

 I have been watching the political theatre from a distance, and closely over the past 2 months, at times bemused by the happenings.

1. AAP leaving Power at Delhi, and coming up in Full blown election gear : Arvind Kejriwal left his CM chair at Delhi and got into full electioneering form. His unabashed attempt at employing all tactics his rivals have been doing since independence is there for all to see and understand.

At least he should have the good sense to finally accept, that AAP is trying to take power, in any manner possible.

However, the Indian middle class voter is not happy at how they have seemingly cheated them, and we can expect a wide movement of their votes back to BJP. This means, AAP is going to cut into Congress more than BJP this time, and we are looking at a washout in these elections barring a few good candidates like Gul Panag, who may be able to get good votes in cities like Chandigarh.

2. Regional Parties : From Didi to Amma,  They have been blowing their trumpets on how the regional federation will take power at the centre with tacit backing by the BJP/Congress and they will be running the country for the next five years. With Didi even agreeing on national television, she is willing to not attempt for PM’s position, if a third front does become  a reality.

However, its easier said than done. The regional parties are themselves facing a tough battle in their home grounds, owing to all parties fielding contestants, either to win, or to cut votes.

3. Congress : They have all  agreed that they have to lose. Most are mentally prepared, and those that aren’t, are only trying to put up a brave face in the media to at least ensure they are alive.
However, its too early to write off the grand old party.
Let’s not forget Sonia is a mastermind. And she is capable of delivering a master stroke depending on how the chips fall.

4. BJP : Narendra modi has only increased his grip on the Party which fancies itself as the next government in waiting, with senior leaders already behaving like ministers, and packing bags to move to delhi.

He has been systematically approaching each state, district, tehsil and marking out his plan objectively. To ensure he doesn't mess up at his best, and possibly, the only chance he will get to become Prime Minister of India.

His lieutenants are doing a commendable job  at making sure, they are able to get every math right.

It appears he is able to take the right steps, as his rivals are increasingly worried. Especially in the crucial states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar & Rajasthan. He is also going ahead and taking some unpopular decisions in order to ensure support in pockets where otherwise they don’t stand a chance, like Karnataka, where they have added Sri Rama Sena Chief Pramod Muthalik in an attempt to garner votes., or Barmer where he stuck to his guns and gave the seat to the ex-congressman to ensure victory for BJP.

They are very clear, just because a Hindu is chief of a Hindu organization, there is no reason why he cannot be a supporter of the Bharatiya Janata Party ideology. While many may not be convinced by the argument, I would say its better they are part of the BJP and in control, rather than outside the BJP and creating problems!

Also, I am given to understand, this time, BJP’s choice of leaders/nominees in UP are very good and they are going to come up with Surprisingly good numbers. On the other side, Mayawati is expected make good gains at SP’s expense.

BJP is also expected to increase vote shares nationally, thus giving them a lease of life in states where till now they do not have a good presence.

Jagan has already said he is going to support whoever has the best chance of making a government at the centre, as long as they agree to give funds to Seemandhara. Trinamool is also expected to give outside support to BJP in case they are unable to form a federal front, but only if BJP gives West Bengal the fresh lease of life in form of Money.

Karnataka BJP has a better chance this time, with Yedurappa with them.

On the whole, it seems Narendra Modi has made a decent effort at cobbling together  a set of processes, people and clever media management to ensure victory.

All said and done, the Indian Populace has the best chance yet, what with Online voter registrations, so much of youth engagement at various levels like online, social, TV, nukkad sabhas, which till now have been largely within the lower strata of the population and a few inclined towards politics.

Hence it is our duty to ensure a decisive victory for whichever party we chose to elect to power.

India needs a strong party with a decisive leader on the throne. Period.

THE AAP Googly!

As late as 3 months back, Narendra Modi was the seemingly invincible hero; the messiah of good governance who would be able to deliver us from the nonchalance and madness that has become Congress.

The Delhi elections and the position of the BJP to not engage in horse trading, in hindsight, seems to have boomeranged on them. With the AAP forming a government at Delhi, they suddenly have become the new twister, blowing in full force!

Fresh faces, Delhi's closeness to the power center, huge funds from abroad, and the middle class from India, all make AAP an interesting threat to the Indian democracy.

On one hand, they have made cleanliness fashionable. On the other, lack of experience, necessary time and sheer wherewithal to fight the established forces of Congress, BJP, regional parties like the BJD, TMC, AIADMK etc makes their prospect at best that of a party with 30-40 seats.

The dreamers would smirk at the above number and talk of fanciful 70's and some even bold enough to talk 80's.

However, lets consider this. Any of those numbers just speak one thing. They would have to get together with the regional parties and look at a third front, with support from Congress for formation of a government. This is the utopian scenario.

In a nutshell, AAP only means instability at the center for atleast next 24 months.

Then where is the difference in AAP and the other established players?

Till such time, they are able to show real work in Delhi, and work their way up, I sincerely believe, that AAP is bad for the country, specially at this juncture.

I do believe they should look at taking 15-20 seats, get a fair representation in the Lok Sabha, and raise issues relevant to the country. Their presence itself in the polity will ensure lot of rectifications like is already evident in the selection process of candidates for BJP, Congress etc for 2014 polls.

I believe that if AAP is talking of ridding India of corruption, then instead of doling out sops to show to the voters they are "delivering", they should focus on real change in the way things work in Delhi, and become a responsible presence in the Lok sabha.

That will take time, but they would be able to create more credibility for themselves. Unlike the rat race that appears to have started within AAP for a share of the media frenzy, or the race for good seats & ministerships.

 Friendly advice for the AAP : Beware, the Aam Aadmi is watching!