Since the time Narendra Modi won the Gujarat election, he had made his ambitions very clear. Subtle signals of his ascension in the BJP were evident when he was suddenly allowed to project a national image, along with selective public engagements in different parts of the country like Kolkata & Karnataka.
For the BJP to really do something meaningful in 2014, Mr Modi has made it very clear to the people who matter(RSS), that he needs total control. This is the only way, he can go beyond old loyalties and ruthlessly deal with countering congress in every state in the country.
It is jocular to believe that the BJP top people(Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Sushma swaraj et al) didn't know that if they annointed Modi as the campaign chief, then Mr Advani would resign. I would like to believe that they have taken a considered view that whatever be the cost, they have no choice but to annoint Mr Modi as the campaign chief, as without him, they do not stand a chance. More so, as the common man of the country today believes him to be the most natural leader within the BJP.
Consider this, with Mr Advani resigning, and his loyalists marginalised, Mr Modi & BJP has the following benefits :
1. Much less intervention from the advani camp in rolling out his plans.
2. An Advani from the outside can do much less damage than he could do from within the BJP.
3. Some of his loyalists may switch over to the pro modi camp, to ensure a meaningful existence within BJP
4. Such noise in the Media will die down within 2-3 months, when Mr Modi can start raking up other more relevant issues facing the common people of the country. Within this time, Mr Modi can also make the necessary organisational changes.
5. Most importantly, there will be clarity. Whether good or bad, BJP will know that they have to swim or sink with Mr Modi. This will ensure most of the people on the ground to fall in line with whatever Mr Modi wants executed.
With regards to the NDA, there could be several permutations & combinations which Mr Modi would have taken into account while taking the above decisions. Addition of parties like :
1. Jayalalitha
2. Mamata Banerjee
3. Jagan (Telengana creation has already been announced by the BJP)
4. BJP gaining on its own in UP, Bihar, North Eastern states
5. Possible increase in vote share in other pro hindu belts
6. Akali Dal has already made enough noises about being in support of Namo
7. Bringing back Yedurappa in Karanataka
With the above major metrics in place, losing an ally like the JD(U) can be countered effectively and a new front can emerge as the NDA.
To sum it up, while the noises in the Media may make it sound like Advani resigning is a loss in the short term, I would like to believe that this is extremely good for the future of BJP, and actually improves its chances in the 2014 polls.
Perhaps Goa is indeed lucky for Narendra Modi!
