The Long road to development - The collapse of the Modi Mania!

The past 20 months have seen a huge roller coaster of expectation. First came the frenzy towards the Magical Modi Mania, then came the exuberence over his coronation, then people started talking about giving him "time", and now, off late, even the most ardent supporter is turning incredulous whenever he sees or hears about Modi or BJP!

Now,lets turn our attention towards other parts of the country:

a) North West : Saw upsets in Haryana & Delhi, challenges in Punjab(Akali Dal?), UP(Akhilesh?), MP(Vyapam?), Chattisgarh(Dr Raman Singh?), Maharshtra(Local issues), Rajasthan{Lalit Modi(who is the bad M now eh?)}, Delhi (Self Immolation)

b) South : Talk about Amma(Exoneration), Chandrababu Naidu (Exasperation) to DMK's (Decimation)

c) East : Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar - (Undergoing baptism by Fire), West bengal (Catch 22), the famed North east (getting a raw deal it seems)

Lets look at the financial indicators :

a) Taxation & Doing business has become tougher
b) Inflation, while under control is trying to rear its Ugly Head.
c) RBI still not toeing the Govt line, and keeping it under a leash
d) Collections still not pretty, and world is still under a lot of Stress
      (or is it Euress leading to Chess? (China's stress))

So all in all, a pretty topsy turvy year under the Modi regime till now.

However, there is a silver lining to all this. India's position in the world stage is more secure, and upright. PM Modi's foreign visit & Swachh Bharat has given a leg up to cross country travels, Better quality FDI and FII is expected within the ecosystem and Defense & Electronics manufacturing is sure to get a fillip.

But the view from the east is this :

1. Structural changes take time : Changes to NITI Aayog, National Rejuvenation Programs, restructuring of policies etc are all going to take atleast 2-3 more years to start being visible.
2. Subsidies are gone : Brace for high growth in exports and world trade when Oil increases and the common man is burdened with heavy burdens of unsubsidised fuel & gas.
3. Large scale cleanup of books effect short term funds availability hitting short term growth.
4. Cautionary stances adopted by Amma and Didi bode well for future legislations and remain to be seen how future work relationships are curated.
5. With above in mind, the author is convinced it will take atleast till October 2016 to even start seeing on ground activities on new projects, funds release in good flow and feel good stories.

But all said and done, one thing is for sure, people have finally realised(or slowly realising) that Hon'ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi is after all, a Human being. And with this, the people are feeling cheated. Everyone thought he was a Superhero (With the famed comic videos circulated through Namo's marketing team still fresh in everyone's mind), and wanted him to perform as he promised.

One fervently hopes the present BJP government and its office bearers are keeping this in mind while performing their daily duties. However, recent interactions by section of Business & Industry with several high profile senior ministers felt that the mood is high handed, and the result feather lite.

A very dangerous combination indeed.

Why Islamic State needs to be taken more seriously than Al qaeda?

I have been perturbed with the happenings around the world for a while now. Hence, finally got around to pen the same for your consumption, thoughts and comments.

If we look at the recent living history of the world(around 100 years), we find that the last war has been in Mid 1900's. 

If we go further to understand History(of say, 300 years), the world had an entirely different landscape, and every few decades, we can see a new reality(Political), with large incidences of sporadic wars in different areas of the world. 

Hence, the spell of over 6+ decades of lasting peace, is one of the longest peacetime experienced by the world, in spite of all its complexities.

A major reason for such lasting peace has been a systemic education of Humans, to lead lives in a particular order, with a dollop of Morality thrown in, to control passions and scope for Ambitions outside the lines drawn by the Western mandarins.

With increasing population of the world, the fight for resources, is only increasing by the day. Be it land, water, food, money, religion or might. The relatively recent occurrences of the small wars, over control of Energy supplies, started by USA, with Iraq, have slowly spread to different parts of the world. That very act of aggression by USA, kicked the status quo in the world, and it slowly started to manifest in a different problem all together. 

The response, manifested itself in a religious response, as a particular faith felt targeted and maligned. 

Very recently, that spark has turned into a fairly widespread act across the Middle World, where the status quo was challenged by the populace of many countries across the Middle east, known as the Arab Spring.

This act, caused a great deal of consternation among Theorists and Politicians across the world. However, some economies, considered the same to be in their interest, as a democracy is easier to break into(or break apart), than a monarchy(which has a tight control over the national interest).

Behind the backdrop of these acts of freedom, aggression, and calls for religious fanaticism, a quiet, but dangerous change in mindset has undergone among a section of humans, with access to power & money.

These people, seem to be fedup with the current world order, and believe, time has come to bring back long lost glories, by taking things by force. They have also decided that moral values, need to take a back seat, till religious supremacy is established across a large part of the world, which they consider theirs by right. 

Owing to this very change in mindset, which the western world never thought could happen with all their checks and balances in place, has led to a very dangerous precedent being set in the world with the installation of the Islamic State. 

For the first time, a breakaway terrorist group has been able to secure Illegitimacy, wherein they have been able to secure a regular source of income from a large section of a society, over a fair amount of geography, where they Rule is the Law. 

They are no more outlaws, and control state machinery, Oil, Power & collect taxes from a large populace.

This, in turn is allowing them to generate greater power and increase their presence in the world. Few Comparison charts are given below for understanding better(Pictures courtesy the Economist & the Washington Post)

If you go through the Maps in detail, you will realise the extent of the problem, and this is the reason why We need to fear the IS. They are here, have dug their heels, and with every passing day, they are becoming more difficult to penetrate.  

Their are reports that they are earning 20-30 million USD per day. That gives them enough resources to recruit greater number of people, who in turn can help in garnering greater resources.

Worse, such success of a group, is making other terrorist organisations think on these lines. This spells trouble for the modern Political world.

Till now, it seems the world is looking towards the USA, to respond(As the leader of the free world!), and honestly, Obama seems to be confused on what to do.

China, Russia and other larger nations, each have their own goals to meet, and don't want to commit resources at this time when they know the US will need to response sooner or later. 

But one thing is certain, with the Arab spring; Russia's Military actions in the Ukraine & Crimea; China's military posturing against Japan, India, Philippines & Indonesia; an unstable North Korea; Slowing European Union; Terror organisations like IS gaining legitimacy and a stagnant USA, all point towards a very difficult half century ahead.