Indian politics : The Apathy of leaders in the future.

The election season is here, and how!

No one could have predicted the Pulwama Attack, and definitely not the airstrike against Pakistan on their own soil! The surge in nationalistic sentiments post the event have also changed the narrative of the pre election discourse.

Given the BJP offensive on nationalism, the congress represented by Mrs Priyanka Gandhi & Mr Rahul Gandhi have realised that it's a do or die situation for the Congress this time. They have realised that they need to come back to power, at any cost, whether their own or of the country.

The congress president has been painstakingly putting out one idea a night since the past few days, promising seemingly impossible dreams, doles & dough.  Direct transfer of Rs 72000 per year to 5 crore families means a direct cost to the country of Rs 3.6 lac crore! To manage the same, congress leaders have suggested that the money will be recovered through higher taxes on the middle class.

What they have failed to mention is the crushing impact it will have over the next 3 years on the Indian economy. With 5 crore families getting 72000 surplus income, there will be an upsurge in rural demand, and prices of fruits, vegetables etc will see a big rise. To compound the problem, the additional burden on the middle class will necessitate raising the wages, and make India more costly in global competitiveness. The twin impact of both will be high inflation, low expansion, and possibly job cuts in face of a slowing economy/low growth in real income.

Since the past 3 months I have been observing Rahul Gandhi, and found him to a far more mature face than before. Not getting into unnecessary spats, and focusing attention on creating his own narrative. There was a brief period when I actually started thinking maybe, just maybe, he may have some sense in what he says.

But the recent comments and promises by him on social media, and finally through release of the Congress Manifesto, I was flabbergasted by the extent of promises they have made to the Indian populace.

Congress has identified the opposition voice in every sphere and tried to capitalise on the same by offering them whatever they have wanted. To name a few :
1. Low jobs : They will fill all government vacancies
2. Retired army personnel : We will offer jobs in CRPF
3. Low farmer income : We will offer direct cash to you
4. Angel Tax: We will abolish the same
5. AFSPA : We will water it down/abolish same
6. J&K : We will reduce army and have unconditional talks

What the above tells me that in the quest for power, he has shown reckless abandon towards the future of the country, and promised whatever it takes, to be able to get attention and turn that attention into votes.

To me, this in itself, disqualifies him to be a PM candidate. A PM candidate has to continuously think of whats best for the country & its citizens regardless of what is considered to be good or bad.

Mr Modi, on his part has been continuing on his offensive on nationalism, past work, and future promise of his sheer hard work, regardless of what Congress says.

Among all this noise between the Congress, BJP & the Mahagathbandhan, what worries me more is far deeper.

If we take a step back and look at the political landscape, I see the following :

1. Congress - A Dynasty trying to save their hold on the Indian Political landscape, whatever the cost.

2. BJP - A party trying to change the narrative by capitalising on the opportunity to polarise votes on lines of nationalism or religion coupled with development targets.

3. Regional parties trying to remove the idea of BJP/Modi who has projected himself to be the only National Leader capable of delivering the goods. These regional parties are polarising voters through their own agenda of polarising people on basis of caste, creed, regional identity & religion.

4. Fringe leaders like Kanhaiya, Hardik, Jignesh, Ghelani who are fanning communal/caste identities in their areas of influence trying to win voters through all sorts of Political Maths.

When we see the above, and really think about it, I fear that once we have lost out on a mass leader like Modi in maybe the next 10-15 years, what kind of people really are there to take us forward?

On this day, we have rabble rousing leaders like Owaisi, Ghelani, Mehbooba, Kanhaiya etc each of whom have an agenda, which is not necessarily nationalistic. At least their public meetings dont tell us that.

Congress, on its part, seems to be unable to find a real, long term viable solution, as the current manifesto that they have released seems like one where they are ready to let go of everything. Economic stability, J&K, Chinese disputed territories, buckling under minority pressures are all on the table as options for the Grand Old Party.

BJP, on its part has leaders, but apart from Modi, at this time, they don't have anyone with the same national appeal, performance graph or grasp on the political mindscape to take over. Younger leaders like Smriti Irani, Youth leader Anurag etc are all ok, but seemingly not PM material.

Maybe we will see entry of better viable candidates who can come and change the narrative when the opportunity presents itself, because if not, I personally, am extremely worried about the future of India in the 2030's and beyond.

Why Islamic State needs to be taken more seriously than Al qaeda?

I have been perturbed with the happenings around the world for a while now. Hence, finally got around to pen the same for your consumption, thoughts and comments.

If we look at the recent living history of the world(around 100 years), we find that the last war has been in Mid 1900's. 

If we go further to understand History(of say, 300 years), the world had an entirely different landscape, and every few decades, we can see a new reality(Political), with large incidences of sporadic wars in different areas of the world. 

Hence, the spell of over 6+ decades of lasting peace, is one of the longest peacetime experienced by the world, in spite of all its complexities.

A major reason for such lasting peace has been a systemic education of Humans, to lead lives in a particular order, with a dollop of Morality thrown in, to control passions and scope for Ambitions outside the lines drawn by the Western mandarins.

With increasing population of the world, the fight for resources, is only increasing by the day. Be it land, water, food, money, religion or might. The relatively recent occurrences of the small wars, over control of Energy supplies, started by USA, with Iraq, have slowly spread to different parts of the world. That very act of aggression by USA, kicked the status quo in the world, and it slowly started to manifest in a different problem all together. 

The response, manifested itself in a religious response, as a particular faith felt targeted and maligned. 

Very recently, that spark has turned into a fairly widespread act across the Middle World, where the status quo was challenged by the populace of many countries across the Middle east, known as the Arab Spring.

This act, caused a great deal of consternation among Theorists and Politicians across the world. However, some economies, considered the same to be in their interest, as a democracy is easier to break into(or break apart), than a monarchy(which has a tight control over the national interest).

Behind the backdrop of these acts of freedom, aggression, and calls for religious fanaticism, a quiet, but dangerous change in mindset has undergone among a section of humans, with access to power & money.

These people, seem to be fedup with the current world order, and believe, time has come to bring back long lost glories, by taking things by force. They have also decided that moral values, need to take a back seat, till religious supremacy is established across a large part of the world, which they consider theirs by right. 

Owing to this very change in mindset, which the western world never thought could happen with all their checks and balances in place, has led to a very dangerous precedent being set in the world with the installation of the Islamic State. 

For the first time, a breakaway terrorist group has been able to secure Illegitimacy, wherein they have been able to secure a regular source of income from a large section of a society, over a fair amount of geography, where they Rule is the Law. 

They are no more outlaws, and control state machinery, Oil, Power & collect taxes from a large populace.

This, in turn is allowing them to generate greater power and increase their presence in the world. Few Comparison charts are given below for understanding better(Pictures courtesy the Economist & the Washington Post)

If you go through the Maps in detail, you will realise the extent of the problem, and this is the reason why We need to fear the IS. They are here, have dug their heels, and with every passing day, they are becoming more difficult to penetrate.  

Their are reports that they are earning 20-30 million USD per day. That gives them enough resources to recruit greater number of people, who in turn can help in garnering greater resources.

Worse, such success of a group, is making other terrorist organisations think on these lines. This spells trouble for the modern Political world.

Till now, it seems the world is looking towards the USA, to respond(As the leader of the free world!), and honestly, Obama seems to be confused on what to do.

China, Russia and other larger nations, each have their own goals to meet, and don't want to commit resources at this time when they know the US will need to response sooner or later. 

But one thing is certain, with the Arab spring; Russia's Military actions in the Ukraine & Crimea; China's military posturing against Japan, India, Philippines & Indonesia; an unstable North Korea; Slowing European Union; Terror organisations like IS gaining legitimacy and a stagnant USA, all point towards a very difficult half century ahead.

The Game of Thrones

 I have been watching the political theatre from a distance, and closely over the past 2 months, at times bemused by the happenings.

1. AAP leaving Power at Delhi, and coming up in Full blown election gear : Arvind Kejriwal left his CM chair at Delhi and got into full electioneering form. His unabashed attempt at employing all tactics his rivals have been doing since independence is there for all to see and understand.

At least he should have the good sense to finally accept, that AAP is trying to take power, in any manner possible.

However, the Indian middle class voter is not happy at how they have seemingly cheated them, and we can expect a wide movement of their votes back to BJP. This means, AAP is going to cut into Congress more than BJP this time, and we are looking at a washout in these elections barring a few good candidates like Gul Panag, who may be able to get good votes in cities like Chandigarh.

2. Regional Parties : From Didi to Amma,  They have been blowing their trumpets on how the regional federation will take power at the centre with tacit backing by the BJP/Congress and they will be running the country for the next five years. With Didi even agreeing on national television, she is willing to not attempt for PM’s position, if a third front does become  a reality.

However, its easier said than done. The regional parties are themselves facing a tough battle in their home grounds, owing to all parties fielding contestants, either to win, or to cut votes.

3. Congress : They have all  agreed that they have to lose. Most are mentally prepared, and those that aren’t, are only trying to put up a brave face in the media to at least ensure they are alive.
However, its too early to write off the grand old party.
Let’s not forget Sonia is a mastermind. And she is capable of delivering a master stroke depending on how the chips fall.

4. BJP : Narendra modi has only increased his grip on the Party which fancies itself as the next government in waiting, with senior leaders already behaving like ministers, and packing bags to move to delhi.

He has been systematically approaching each state, district, tehsil and marking out his plan objectively. To ensure he doesn't mess up at his best, and possibly, the only chance he will get to become Prime Minister of India.

His lieutenants are doing a commendable job  at making sure, they are able to get every math right.

It appears he is able to take the right steps, as his rivals are increasingly worried. Especially in the crucial states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar & Rajasthan. He is also going ahead and taking some unpopular decisions in order to ensure support in pockets where otherwise they don’t stand a chance, like Karnataka, where they have added Sri Rama Sena Chief Pramod Muthalik in an attempt to garner votes., or Barmer where he stuck to his guns and gave the seat to the ex-congressman to ensure victory for BJP.

They are very clear, just because a Hindu is chief of a Hindu organization, there is no reason why he cannot be a supporter of the Bharatiya Janata Party ideology. While many may not be convinced by the argument, I would say its better they are part of the BJP and in control, rather than outside the BJP and creating problems!

Also, I am given to understand, this time, BJP’s choice of leaders/nominees in UP are very good and they are going to come up with Surprisingly good numbers. On the other side, Mayawati is expected make good gains at SP’s expense.

BJP is also expected to increase vote shares nationally, thus giving them a lease of life in states where till now they do not have a good presence.

Jagan has already said he is going to support whoever has the best chance of making a government at the centre, as long as they agree to give funds to Seemandhara. Trinamool is also expected to give outside support to BJP in case they are unable to form a federal front, but only if BJP gives West Bengal the fresh lease of life in form of Money.

Karnataka BJP has a better chance this time, with Yedurappa with them.

On the whole, it seems Narendra Modi has made a decent effort at cobbling together  a set of processes, people and clever media management to ensure victory.

All said and done, the Indian Populace has the best chance yet, what with Online voter registrations, so much of youth engagement at various levels like online, social, TV, nukkad sabhas, which till now have been largely within the lower strata of the population and a few inclined towards politics.

Hence it is our duty to ensure a decisive victory for whichever party we chose to elect to power.

India needs a strong party with a decisive leader on the throne. Period.

THE AAP Googly!

As late as 3 months back, Narendra Modi was the seemingly invincible hero; the messiah of good governance who would be able to deliver us from the nonchalance and madness that has become Congress.

The Delhi elections and the position of the BJP to not engage in horse trading, in hindsight, seems to have boomeranged on them. With the AAP forming a government at Delhi, they suddenly have become the new twister, blowing in full force!

Fresh faces, Delhi's closeness to the power center, huge funds from abroad, and the middle class from India, all make AAP an interesting threat to the Indian democracy.

On one hand, they have made cleanliness fashionable. On the other, lack of experience, necessary time and sheer wherewithal to fight the established forces of Congress, BJP, regional parties like the BJD, TMC, AIADMK etc makes their prospect at best that of a party with 30-40 seats.

The dreamers would smirk at the above number and talk of fanciful 70's and some even bold enough to talk 80's.

However, lets consider this. Any of those numbers just speak one thing. They would have to get together with the regional parties and look at a third front, with support from Congress for formation of a government. This is the utopian scenario.

In a nutshell, AAP only means instability at the center for atleast next 24 months.

Then where is the difference in AAP and the other established players?

Till such time, they are able to show real work in Delhi, and work their way up, I sincerely believe, that AAP is bad for the country, specially at this juncture.

I do believe they should look at taking 15-20 seats, get a fair representation in the Lok Sabha, and raise issues relevant to the country. Their presence itself in the polity will ensure lot of rectifications like is already evident in the selection process of candidates for BJP, Congress etc for 2014 polls.

I believe that if AAP is talking of ridding India of corruption, then instead of doling out sops to show to the voters they are "delivering", they should focus on real change in the way things work in Delhi, and become a responsible presence in the Lok sabha.

That will take time, but they would be able to create more credibility for themselves. Unlike the rat race that appears to have started within AAP for a share of the media frenzy, or the race for good seats & ministerships.

 Friendly advice for the AAP : Beware, the Aam Aadmi is watching!