BJP's bungled economic actions

Amid all the cry of wrong policies of the current NDA government, during my interaction with industry participants across the spectrum of automotive, plastics, paints etc, following came out :

BJP's policies were well intentioned, but the implementation has been botched. Let's look at each of main actions :
A. GST - while the aim was to get everyone on. Board and with that they cleared off on multiple rates and complex structures, the rules made have had serious repercussions by faulty drafting of initial laws. This has happened largely as they wanted to ensure law has to be iron tight and should not leave room for businesses for any wrongdoing. In this quest, they forgot to differentiate between bona fide  and mala fide acts. This created such wrong rules that its opened a pandora box of legal cases going forward. While they have reacted now, it's late and has already caused huge loss.

B. I was surprised to understand from some companies which import paints from other countries,  that they get full input credit for all goods that they import and sell and hence they dont need to setup a manufacturing plant at all !

C. Safety regulations, environmental regulations are all being done together and too fast. This has pushed up acquisition cost. But bigger issue is the hard stop mandated by the SC which has created the current gloom and doom in the industry.  If the supreme court can be petitioned to review this rule, and allow for registration of stock available at dealerships on 31 march 2020, then the current situation will suddenly turn towards a virtuous cycle like earlier times of BS changes as customers would like to take benefit of price difference. But currently they are only waiting for the bloothbath which they feel is expected in Q4.

D. Now look at the decision on single use plastics. Thousands of plastic units manufacturing such goods across the country are suddenly in a spot as they dont know what to do. Few years back the government allowed plastic bags (Leno bags/woven sacks) for all FVI requirements removing jute. Food packaging etc also got huge investments in plastics. Now suddenly the government wants to get rid of same. What are these manufacturers going to do ? They stop all investments and start saving for the bad times to come !
Imagine 100,000 units stopping all investments !!

E. Quest for transparency and tax collections has increased harassment hugely on businessmen. Most businesses I know have decided not to open any more companies given the compliance required ( they have increased 100 times from before ) and also they have decided try and reduce the work they were planning earlier. I hardly hear people talk about growing beyond the current planned and auctioned investments. The jewellery sector has been hardest hit in this regard.

F. Closure of large companies like Jet airways, persecution of people like Vijay mallya inspite of his repeated public offer of full settlements, have caused a huge lack of confidence and distrust between industry and government.

To my mind government can still correct the situation at this time to save a large number of remaining jobs, if it genuinely acknowledges the real issues in the economy.

Some suggested actions are :

1. GST refund RTGS in next 7 days
2. FEAR from businesses needs to be removed
3. Compliance relief so that people can focus on increasing business
4. Cash movement relief - bank withdrawals, no TDS.
5. TCS bracket to be increased to 20 lacs and above.
6. Consumption/modernization capex breaks to be given to corporates
7. Stopping all coercive measures on businesses for gst, IT, old cases.
8. Booster consumption package with incentives for companies
9. Bank loans rejig, RBI relaxation on questioning of banks for end use.

While some actions seem excessive, but given current state of economy, drastic measures are needed to kickstart the economy once.

When things stabilise, government can think of changing things one at a time.

Marketing in politics today

Every elections see new ideas emerging in the way candidates connect with the masses.

This time too is no different.

If we compare the 2014 campaign to the 2019 campaign there are subtle differences between the BJP campaigns.

2014 was more about introducing modi to the masses. Use of technology, leveraging old hands within BJP to supplement his credentials, and Mr Modi's unrelenting hard work and request for support to general populace felt from the heart and people reeling from inaction and ineptitude gave Mr Modi a resounding chance to perform.

This time we see the campaign completely centered around their biggest mascot himself. It's a big risk for Mr Modi, because if he fails it's all on him. He has employed traditional with the digital. Town hall formats, direct issue based conversations and relentless last mile campaign are the tools this time.

Congress on the other hand has changed the approach. They realised that Mr Rahul Gandhi is no match for Mr Modi in traditional speeches. So we  see him using more direct engagement platforms in colleges etc. to connect with youth. Ms priyanka Gandhi who is a more natural speaker and gets instant connect with grassroots people wherever she goes is employing her charms to connect with voters around her.

One thing is clear, whether Congress wins this time or not, she is someone who will bounce back when her time comes. Her easygoing speaking, ability to deliver hard punches in a soft voice are definitely reassuring to the voters she meets. In today's campaign in Assam the way she connected with crowd and put full support on the local candidate is quite different from how Mr Modi is dealing with his campaign. To my mind this will pay off for Congress in time to come and it will be interesting to see how things pan out.

The way things are going time isn't far when all major candidates will have to come for open debates in the format used in America and some other western countries.

It'll definitely be an interesting watch to see Mr Modi and Mr Gandhi take on each other in such a format, not to mention the mahgathbandhan leaders like Ms Banerjee, mr akhilesh yadav and others.

As marketing gets slicker in poll campaigns voters need to become smarter to shift through the makeup and realise the real picture to make an informed choice.

Indian politics : The Apathy of leaders in the future.

The election season is here, and how!

No one could have predicted the Pulwama Attack, and definitely not the airstrike against Pakistan on their own soil! The surge in nationalistic sentiments post the event have also changed the narrative of the pre election discourse.

Given the BJP offensive on nationalism, the congress represented by Mrs Priyanka Gandhi & Mr Rahul Gandhi have realised that it's a do or die situation for the Congress this time. They have realised that they need to come back to power, at any cost, whether their own or of the country.

The congress president has been painstakingly putting out one idea a night since the past few days, promising seemingly impossible dreams, doles & dough.  Direct transfer of Rs 72000 per year to 5 crore families means a direct cost to the country of Rs 3.6 lac crore! To manage the same, congress leaders have suggested that the money will be recovered through higher taxes on the middle class.

What they have failed to mention is the crushing impact it will have over the next 3 years on the Indian economy. With 5 crore families getting 72000 surplus income, there will be an upsurge in rural demand, and prices of fruits, vegetables etc will see a big rise. To compound the problem, the additional burden on the middle class will necessitate raising the wages, and make India more costly in global competitiveness. The twin impact of both will be high inflation, low expansion, and possibly job cuts in face of a slowing economy/low growth in real income.

Since the past 3 months I have been observing Rahul Gandhi, and found him to a far more mature face than before. Not getting into unnecessary spats, and focusing attention on creating his own narrative. There was a brief period when I actually started thinking maybe, just maybe, he may have some sense in what he says.

But the recent comments and promises by him on social media, and finally through release of the Congress Manifesto, I was flabbergasted by the extent of promises they have made to the Indian populace.

Congress has identified the opposition voice in every sphere and tried to capitalise on the same by offering them whatever they have wanted. To name a few :
1. Low jobs : They will fill all government vacancies
2. Retired army personnel : We will offer jobs in CRPF
3. Low farmer income : We will offer direct cash to you
4. Angel Tax: We will abolish the same
5. AFSPA : We will water it down/abolish same
6. J&K : We will reduce army and have unconditional talks

What the above tells me that in the quest for power, he has shown reckless abandon towards the future of the country, and promised whatever it takes, to be able to get attention and turn that attention into votes.

To me, this in itself, disqualifies him to be a PM candidate. A PM candidate has to continuously think of whats best for the country & its citizens regardless of what is considered to be good or bad.

Mr Modi, on his part has been continuing on his offensive on nationalism, past work, and future promise of his sheer hard work, regardless of what Congress says.

Among all this noise between the Congress, BJP & the Mahagathbandhan, what worries me more is far deeper.

If we take a step back and look at the political landscape, I see the following :

1. Congress - A Dynasty trying to save their hold on the Indian Political landscape, whatever the cost.

2. BJP - A party trying to change the narrative by capitalising on the opportunity to polarise votes on lines of nationalism or religion coupled with development targets.

3. Regional parties trying to remove the idea of BJP/Modi who has projected himself to be the only National Leader capable of delivering the goods. These regional parties are polarising voters through their own agenda of polarising people on basis of caste, creed, regional identity & religion.

4. Fringe leaders like Kanhaiya, Hardik, Jignesh, Ghelani who are fanning communal/caste identities in their areas of influence trying to win voters through all sorts of Political Maths.

When we see the above, and really think about it, I fear that once we have lost out on a mass leader like Modi in maybe the next 10-15 years, what kind of people really are there to take us forward?

On this day, we have rabble rousing leaders like Owaisi, Ghelani, Mehbooba, Kanhaiya etc each of whom have an agenda, which is not necessarily nationalistic. At least their public meetings dont tell us that.

Congress, on its part, seems to be unable to find a real, long term viable solution, as the current manifesto that they have released seems like one where they are ready to let go of everything. Economic stability, J&K, Chinese disputed territories, buckling under minority pressures are all on the table as options for the Grand Old Party.

BJP, on its part has leaders, but apart from Modi, at this time, they don't have anyone with the same national appeal, performance graph or grasp on the political mindscape to take over. Younger leaders like Smriti Irani, Youth leader Anurag etc are all ok, but seemingly not PM material.

Maybe we will see entry of better viable candidates who can come and change the narrative when the opportunity presents itself, because if not, I personally, am extremely worried about the future of India in the 2030's and beyond.